Izolacja-Jarocin (WAR:IZO) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: zł17.20 (As of Today)

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As of today (2023-06-07), Izolacja-Jarocin's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is zł17.20.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Izolacja-Jarocin's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Izolacja-Jarocin is 83.90%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Izolacja-Jarocin's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

WAR:IZO's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Building Materials industry.
Industry Median: 0.60
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) only.

Izolacja-Jarocin Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Izolacja-Jarocin's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Izolacja-Jarocin Annual Data

Trend

Dec12

Dec13

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

Izolacja-Jarocin Semi-Annual Data
	Dec12	Jun13	Dec13	Jun14	Dec14	Jun15	Dec15	Jun16	Dec16	Jun17	Dec17	Jun18	Jun19	Dec19	Jun20	Dec20	Jun21	Dec21	Jun22	Dec22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)																-	-	-	-	-

Izolacja-Jarocin Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 20% which is NO less than 20% => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = zł0.500.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Izolacja-Jarocin's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	=	EPS without NRI	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.1) = 1.0909090909091
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

EPS without NRI

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

EPS without NRI

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

0.500

34.4098

17.20

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
	=	(17.2	-	2.77)	/	17.2
	=	83.90 %

Izolacja-Jarocin (WAR:IZO) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Izolacja-Jarocin Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

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Izolacja-Jarocin (WAR:IZO) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Building Materials » Izolacja-Jarocin SA (WAR:IZO) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

ul. Poznanska 24-26, Jarocin, POL, 63-200

Website

http://www.izolacja-jarocin.pl

Izolacja-Jarocin SA produces and distributes building materials. It offers waterproofing and sealing products for the construction industry. The products include tarmac asphalt, bulks and bituminous binders, shingles, construction knives and putty, roofing membranes, styrofoam boards taped with tar paper, and products for road engineering.

Izolacja-Jarocin (WAR:IZO) Headlines

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