Holland Colours (XAMS:HOLCO) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: €278.31 (As of Today)

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As of today (2023-06-06), Holland Colours's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is €278.31.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Holland Colours's Predictability Rank is 4.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Holland Colours is 60.48%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Holland Colours's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

XAMS:HOLCO' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.23 Med: 0.41 Max: 0.95
Current: 0.4

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Holland Colours was 0.95. The lowest was 0.23. And the median was 0.41.

XAMS:HOLCO's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked better than
78.6% of 271 companies
in the Chemicals industry
Industry Median: 0.73 vs XAMS:HOLCO: 0.40

Holland Colours Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Holland Colours's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Holland Colours Annual Data

Trend

Mar13

Mar14

Mar15

Mar16

Mar17

Mar18

Mar19

Mar20

Mar21

Mar22

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

93.83

100.28

350.20

328.70

378.36

Holland Colours Semi-Annual Data
	Mar13	Sep13	Mar14	Sep14	Mar15	Sep15	Mar16	Sep16	Mar17	Sep17	Mar18	Sep18	Mar19	Sep19	Mar20	Sep20	Mar21	Sep21	Mar22	Sep22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)																-	328.70	-	378.36	-

Holland Colours Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 17.50%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 17.50% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 17.50%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = €9.589.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Holland Colours's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	=	EPS without NRI	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.175)/(1+0.1) = 1.0681818181818
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

EPS without NRI

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

EPS without NRI

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

9.589

29.0235

278.31

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
	=	(278.31	-	110.00)	/	278.31
	=	60.48 %

Holland Colours (XAMS:HOLCO) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Holland Colours Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

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Holland Colours (XAMS:HOLCO) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Holland Colours (XAMS:HOLCO) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HCY:Germany

Address

Halvemaanweg 1, P.O. Box 720, Apeldoorn, GE, NLD, 7323 RW

Website

https://www.hollandcolours.com

Holland Colours creates and manufactures high-quality solid and liquid colorants, masterbatches and additives. The company and its subsidiaries manufacture, distribute, and sell color concentrates. Its products are designed to be well suited for coloring rigid and flexible polyvinyl chloride, pet, polyolefins and other polymers. The company serves many different markets which include building and construction but is not limited to, profiles, pipes, siding, and cladding. In addition, to serving these markets, it also offers color concentrates for coatings, elastomers, adhesives and other applications. The company operates geographically across Europe, the United States of America and Asia.

Holland Colours (XAMS:HOLCO) Headlines

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