Archer-Daniels Midland Co (NYSE:ADM) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $47.99 (As of Today)

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As of today (2023-03-21), Archer-Daniels Midland Co's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $47.99.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Archer-Daniels Midland Co's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Archer-Daniels Midland Co is -60.30%.

The industry rank for Archer-Daniels Midland Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

Archer-Daniels Midland Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Archer-Daniels Midland Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Archer-Daniels Midland Co Annual Data

Trend

Dec13

Dec14

Dec15

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Dec21

Dec22

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Archer-Daniels Midland Co Quarterly Data
	Mar18	Jun18	Sep18	Dec18	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)																-	-	-	-	-

Archer-Daniels Midland Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $3.844.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Archer-Daniels Midland Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.1) = 0.95454545454545
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

3.844

12.485

47.99

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(47.99	-	76.93)	/	47.99
	=	-60.30 %

Archer-Daniels Midland Co (NYSE:ADM) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Archer-Daniels Midland Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Archer-Daniels Midland Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Archer-Daniels Midland Co (NYSE:ADM) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Archer-Daniels Midland Co (NYSE:ADM) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ADM:Mexico ADM:Germany A1DM34:Brazil ARDA:Austria

Address

77 West Wacker Drive, Suite 4600, Chicago, IL, USA, 60601

Website

https://www.adm.com

Archer-Daniels Midland is a major processor of oilseeds, corn, wheat, and other agricultural commodities. Additionally, the company owns an extensive network of logistical assets to store and transport crops around the globe. ADM also runs a nutrition business that focuses on both human and animal ingredients. The company is also a large producer of corn-based sweeteners, starches, and ethanol.

Executives

Collins James C. Jr.	director	1007 MARKET STREET, D-9058, WILMINGTON DE 19898
Theodore Iii Colbert	director	C/O THE BOEING COMPANY, 100 RIVERSIDE PLAZA, CHICAGO IL 60606-1596
Strader Fruit Molly L	officer: Vice Pres., Corp. Controller	77 WEST WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Jennifer L Weber	officer: Senior Vice President	1000 LOWES BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Lei Zhang Schlitz	director	5757 N. GREENBAY AVENUE, GLENDALE WI 53129
Michael S Burke	director	C/O AECOM TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION, 555 S. FLOWER STREET, SUITE 3700, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Stefano Rettore	officer: Senior Vice President	77 WEST WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Suzan F. Harrison	director	77 WEST WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Debra A. Sandler	director	KEURIG DR PEPPER INC., 53 SOUTH AVE., BURLINGTON MA 01803
Vincent F Macciocchi	officer: Senior Vice President	77 W. WACKER DR., SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Christopher M Cuddy	officer: President-Corn	77 W. WACKER DR., SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Gregory A Morris	officer: Senior Vice President	77 W. WACKER DR., SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Francisco J Sanchez	director	77 W. WACKER DR., SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Benjamin I Bard	officer: Vice President	4666 FARIES PARKWAY, DECATUR IL 62526
D Cameron Findlay	officer: Senior Vice President	77 W. WACKER DR., SUITE 2600, CHICAGO IL 60601