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Cellectar Biosciences Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $-19.67 (As of Today)
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As of today (2021-11-29), Cellectar Biosciences's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $-19.67.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Cellectar Biosciences's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Cellectar Biosciences is N/A.


Cellectar Biosciences Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Cellectar Biosciences's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Cellectar Biosciences Annual Data
Trend Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Cellectar Biosciences Quarterly Data
Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Cellectar Biosciences Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 8%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 20% which is NO less than 20% => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $-0.467.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Cellectar Biosciences's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.08) = 1.1111111111111
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.08) = 0.96296296296296

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=-0.467*42.1207
=-19.67

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(-19.67-0.7229)/-19.67
=N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Cellectar Biosciences  (NAS:CLRB) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Cellectar Biosciences Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Cellectar Biosciences Business Description

Cellectar Biosciences logo
Industry
Healthcare » Biotechnology NAICS : 325412 SIC : 2834
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
100 Campus Drive, Florham Park, NJ, USA, 07932
Cellectar Biosciences Inc is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company. It focusses on development of targeted phospholipid drug conjugates for the treatment and imaging of cancer. The company's pipeline consists of pre-clinical and clinical product candidates including radiotherapeutic and chemotherapeutic phospholipid drug conjugates. Its portfolio of products in development includes CLR 131, CTX Product Portfolio consisting of CTX CLR 1800-P, CTX CLR 1602-PTX and CTX CLR 1700, CLR 125, CLR 124, and CLR 1502.
Executives
Friend John E. Ii officer: VP, Chief Medical Officer 26 ORCHARD LANE COLT NECK NJ 07722
Swirsky Douglas J director C/O REXAHN PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 15245 SHADY GROVE ROAD SUITE 455 ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Neis John director 505 S. ROSA ROAD, SUITE 201 MADISON WI 53719
Hill Stephen A director 50 AVENUE GENERAL DE GAULLE BRUXELLES C9 9999999999
Driscoll Frederick W director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: DRISCOLL FREDERICK W a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Loren Stefan director 3226 AVENIDA DE SUENO CARLSBAD CA 92009
Elefant Dov officer: Chief Financial Officer EPICEPT CORPORATION 270 SYLVAN AVENUE ENGLEWOOD CLIFFS NJ 07632
Caruso James V director, officer: President and CEO C/O CELLECTAR BIOSCIENCES, INC. 8383 GREENWAY BLVD STE 600 MIDDLETON WI 53562
Longcor Jarrod officer: Chief Business Officer C/O RIB-X PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 300 GEORGE STREET, SUITE 301 NEW HAVEN CT 06511
Grachev Igor D officer: Chief Medical Officer 15 REID LANE MILLSTONE TWP NJ 08535
Bernhardt Charles Thomas Iii officer: Interim CFO 23 BIRCH ROAD MALVERN PA 19355
Posner Brian M officer: Chief Financial Officer 1590 REED ROAD PENNINGTON NJ 08534
Hamill John P. officer: Interim CFO 4092 NEW HOPE ROAD FURLONG PA 18925
Kolean Chad J officer: VP, Chief Financial Officer C/O CELLECTAR BIOSCIENCES, INC. 3301 AGRICULTURE DRIVE MADISON WI 53716
Hertzberg Richard other: significant owner 1329 STRATFORD COURT DEL MAR CA 92014

Cellectar Biosciences Headlines

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