Expeditors International of Washington (Expeditors International of Washington) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $178.54 (As of Apr. 26, 2024)

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What is Expeditors International of Washington Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-04-26), Expeditors International of Washington's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $178.54.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Expeditors International of Washington's Predictability Rank is 3.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Expeditors International of Washington is 36.54%.

The industry rank for Expeditors International of Washington's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

EXPD's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked better than
52.78% of 108 companies
in the Transportation industry
Industry Median: 0.655 vs EXPD: 0.63

Expeditors International of Washington Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Expeditors International of Washington's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Expeditors International of Washington Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Expeditors International of Washington Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

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84.43

80.06

113.65

366.36

196.15

Expeditors International of Washington Quarterly Data
	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															366.36	398.37	335.08	230.57	196.15

Competitive Comparison of Expeditors International of Washington's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Integrated Freight & Logistics subindustry, Expeditors International of Washington's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Expeditors International of Washington's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Expeditors International of Washington's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Expeditors International of Washington's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.

Expeditors International of Washington Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.67%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 17.70%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Expeditors International of Washington's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 17.70%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 17.70%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $6.667.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Expeditors International of Washington's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.177)/(1+0.11) = 1.0603603603604
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

6.667

26.7796

178.54

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(178.54	-	113.30)	/	178.54
	=	36.54 %

Expeditors International of Washington (NYSE:EXPD) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Expeditors International of Washington Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Expeditors International of Washington (Expeditors International of Washington) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Expeditors International of Washington Inc (NYSE:EXPD) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EXPD:Mexico EW1:Germany

Address

1015 Third Avenue, Seattle, WA, USA, 98104

Website

https://www.expeditors.com

Expeditors International of Washington is a non-asset-based third-party logistics provider, mainly focused on international freight forwarding. Its offers freight consolidation and forwarding, customs brokerage, warehousing and distribution, purchase order management, vendor consolidation, and numerous other value-added logistics services. It employs sophisticated IT systems and contracts with airlines and ocean carriers to move customers' freight across the globe. The firm operates more than 200 full-service office locations worldwide, in addition to numerous satellite locations. In 2022, Expeditors derived 34% of consolidated net revenue from airfreight, 30% from ocean freight, and 36% from customs brokerage and other services.

Executives

Jeffrey S Musser	officer: Senior VP and CIO	C/O EXPEDITORS, 1015 THIRD AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 981041190
Jeffrey F Dickerman	officer: Senior VP - General Counsel	1015 THIRD AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98104
Benjamin G. Clark	officer: Senior VP - General Counsel	1015 THIRD AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, SEATTLE WA 98110
Bradley S Powell	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O EXPEDITORS, 1015 THIRD AVE, SEATTLE WA 981041190
Blake R Bell	officer: President, Global Products	1015 THIRD AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98104
Eugene K Alger	officer: Executive VP-North America	1015 THIRD AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 981041190
Brandon Pedersen	director	EXPEDITORS, 1015 THIRD AVE, SEATTLE WA 98104
Robert R Wright	director	C/O EXPEDITORS, 1015 THIRD AVE, SEATTLE WA 981041190
Olivia D Polius	director	C/O EXPEDITORS, 1015 THIRD AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98104
Christopher J. Mcclincy	officer: Senior VP - CIO	1015 THIRD AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, SEATTLE WA 98104-1190
Glenn M Alger	director	1015 THIRD AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 981041190
Daniel R Wall	officer: SVP - Ocean Services	C/O EXPEDITORS, 1015 THIRD AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 981041190
Richard H Rostan	officer: President - Global Geographies	C/O EXPEDITORS, 1015 THIRD AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98104
Mark A Emmert	director	C/O EXPEDITORS, 1015 THIRD AVE, SEATTLE WA 981041190
Philip M Coughlin	officer: Executive VP-North America	1015 THIRD AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 981041190