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Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Expeditors International of Washington's forward rate of return for was -1.01%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Expeditors International of Washington's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
EXPD'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.1 Med: 12.87 Max: 25.68
Current: -1.84
During the past 13 years, Expeditors International of Washington's highest Forward Rate of Return was 25.68. The lowest was -2.10. And the median was 12.87.
EXPD's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than 76.66% of 754
companies
in the Transportation industry
Industry Median: 10.805
vs EXPD: -1.84
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Expeditors International of Washington (NYSE:EXPD) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Expeditors International of Washington Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Expeditors International of Washington Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Expeditors International of Washington Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
Expeditors International of Washington Annual Data
EXPD vs FDXF, CHRW, JBHT: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Integrated Freight & Logistics subindustry, Expeditors International of Washington's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Expeditors International of Washington Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Transportation Industry
For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Expeditors International of Washington's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Expeditors International of Washington's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Expeditors International of Washington Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of -1.01% mean?
Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of -1.01% as of Mar. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Expeditors International of Washington and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Expeditors International of Washington ranks #578 out of 754 companies in the Transportation industry, placing it in the top 76.7%.
Is Expeditors International of Washington's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Expeditors International of Washington's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -1.01%. Based on the distribution chart, Expeditors International of Washington ranks #578 out of 754 companies in the Transportation industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Expeditors International of Washington has a GF Score™ of 77/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Expeditors International of Washington's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to FDXF and CHRW?
According to the Transportation industry distribution chart, Expeditors International of Washington ranks #578 out of 754 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places Expeditors International of Washington in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.81. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Transportation company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Transportation companies is 10.81, based on 754 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Expeditors International of Washington and its competitors. For the Transportation industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.81 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Expeditors International of Washington's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -1.01%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Expeditors International of Washington stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $147.67, compared to a current price of $170.03 — trading 15.1% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -1.01%. Expeditors International of Washington's overall GF Score™ is 77/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -1.01% as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Expeditors International of Washington stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $170.03 is trading 15.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of $147.67.
GuruFocus considers Expeditors International of Washington to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for EXPD:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: -1.01%
GF Value™: $147.67 vs. price of $170.03 (15.1% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the EXPD stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Expeditors International of Washington Business Description
Based in the US, Expeditors International of Washington is a non-asset-based third-party logistics provider, mainly focused on international freight forwarding. Its offers freight consolidation and forwarding, customs brokerage, warehousing and distribution, purchase order management, vendor consolidation, and numerous other value-added logistics services. It employs sophisticated IT systems and contracts with airlines and ocean carriers to move customers' freight across the globe. The firm operates more than 200 full-service office locations worldwide, in addition to numerous satellite locations. In 2025, Expeditors derived 36% of consolidated gross revenue from airfreight, 25% from ocean freight, and 39% from customs brokerage and other services.
77GF Score
Get the complete analysis for EXPD
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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