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Manhattan Associates Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $70.84 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-05-20), Manhattan Associates's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $70.84.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Manhattan Associates's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Manhattan Associates is -66.09%.

The industry rank for Manhattan Associates's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:


Manhattan Associates Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Manhattan Associates's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Manhattan Associates Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 86.32 60.76 - - -

Manhattan Associates Quarterly Data
Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Manhattan Associates Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 14.70%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 14.70% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 14.70%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $2.688.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Manhattan Associates's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.147)/(1+0.09) = 1.0522935779817
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=2.688*26.3545
=70.84

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(70.84-117.66)/70.84
=-66.09 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Manhattan Associates  (NAS:MANH) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Manhattan Associates Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Manhattan Associates Business Description

Manhattan Associates logo
Industry
Technology » Software NAICS : 511210 SIC : 7372
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2300 Windy Ridge Parkway, Tenth Floor, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30339
Manhattan Associates provides software that helps users manage their supply chains, inventory, and omnichannel operations. Customers are generally retailers, wholesalers, manufacturers, and logistics providers. The company was founded in 1990 and serves more than 1,200 customers around the world.
Executives
Eger Edmond director 135 CHEROKEE WAY PORTOLA VALLEY CA 94028
Richards Bruce officer: Sr. V.P. & Chief Legal Officer 190 NORTHLAND RIDGE TRAIL ATLANTA GA 30342
Howell Robert G officer: Sr VP, Americas Sales 2300 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY 10TH FLOOR ATLANTA GA 30339
Huntz John J Jr director 1201 W PEACHTREE STREET NW STE 5000 ATLANTA GA 30309
Noonan Thomas E director C/O INTERNET SECURITY SYSTEM INC 6303 BARFIELD RD ATLANTA GA 30328
Hollembaek Linda T. director 2300 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY TENTH FLOOR ATLANTA GA 30339
Raghavan Deepak director 2300 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY SUITE 700 ATLANTA GA 30339
Moran Charles E director 2300 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY 10TH FLOOR ATLANTA GA 30339
Story Dennis B officer: EVP, CFO & Treasurer PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: STORY DENNIS B a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Capel Eddie director, officer: President & CEO 2300 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 1000 ATLANTA GA 30339
Pinne Linda C. officer: Sr VP, Global Corp Controller 2300 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY TENTH FLOOR ATLANTA GA 30339
Heyman John H director 3925 BROOKSIDE PARKWAY ALPHARETTA GA 30022
Cassidy Brian J director MEENTSESTREAST 81 NL 6987 GLESBEEK NETHERLANDS P7 0000
Lautenbach Dan J director 106 COSTA BELLA COVE AUSTIN TX 78734
Sinisgalli Peter F director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: SINISGALLI PETER F a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}

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