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Meta Platforms Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $487.58 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-08-10), Meta Platforms's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $487.58.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Meta Platforms's Predictability Rank is 4.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Meta Platforms is 63.29%.

The industry rank for Meta Platforms's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

META's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked better than
85.71% of 35 companies
in the Interactive Media industry
Industry Median: 0.88 vs META: 0.37

Meta Platforms Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Meta Platforms's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Meta Platforms Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - 383.18 577.94

Meta Platforms Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 468.26 523.69 577.94 536.50 487.58

Meta Platforms Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 20% which is NO less than 20% => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $12.828.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Meta Platforms's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.09) = 1.1009174311927
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=12.828*38.009
=487.58

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(487.58-179.00)/487.58
=63.29 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Meta Platforms  (NAS:META) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Meta Platforms Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Meta Platforms's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Meta Platforms Business Description

Meta Platforms logo
Address
1601 Willow Road, Menlo Park, CA, USA, 94025
Meta is the world's largest online social network, with 2.5 billion monthly active users. Users engage with each other in different ways, exchanging messages and sharing news events, photos, and videos. On the video side, the firm is in the process of building a library of premium content and monetizing it via ads or subscription revenue. Meta refers to this as Facebook Watch. The firm's ecosystem consists mainly of the Facebook app, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp, and many features surrounding these products. Users can access Facebook on mobile devices and desktops. Advertising revenue represents more than 90% of the firm's total revenue, with 50% coming from the U.S. and Canada and 25% from Europe. With gross margins above 80%, Meta operates at a 30%-plus margin.
Executives
Bosworth Andrew officer: Chief Technology Officer C/O META PLATFORMS INC. 1601 WILLOW ROAD MENLO PARK CA 94025
Clegg Nicholas officer: President, Global Affairs C/O META PLATFORMS INC. 1601 WILLOW ROAD MENLO PARK CA 94025
Xu Tony director C/O DOORDASH, INC. 303 2ND STREET, SOUTH TOWER, 8TH FLOOR SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Levine Marne L. officer: Chief Business Officer C/O CHEGG, INC. 3990 FREEDOM CIRCLE SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Cox Christopher K officer: Chief Product Officer C/O FACEBOOK, INC. 1601 WILLOW ROAD MENLO PARK CA 94025
Andreessen Marc L director C/O ARNOLD & PORTER LLP 3 EMBARCADERO CENTER 7TH FLOOR SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Chenault Kenneth I director AMERICAN EXPRESS COMPANY 200 VESEY STREET NEW YORK NY 10285
Zients Jeffrey D director
Alford Peggy director 435 TASSO STREET PALO ALTO CA 94301
Thiel Peter director 9200 SUNSET BOULEVARD SUITE 1110 WEST HOLLYWOOD CA 90069
Houston Andrew director 333 BRANNAN STREET SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Kimmitt Robert M director C/O FACEBOOK, INC. 1601 WILLOW ROAD MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sandberg Sheryl officer: Chief Operating Officer 1 FACEBOOK WAY MENLO PARK CA 94025
Killefer Nancy director 3170 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE FALLS CHURCH VA 22042
Travis Tracey Thomas director

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