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Orgenesis Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $-19.38 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-05-24), Orgenesis's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $-19.38.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Orgenesis's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Orgenesis is N/A.

The industry rank for Orgenesis's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:


Orgenesis Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Orgenesis's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Orgenesis Annual Data
Trend Nov12 Nov13 Nov14 Nov15 Nov16 Nov17 Nov18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Orgenesis Quarterly Data
Feb17 May17 Aug17 Nov17 Feb18 May18 Aug18 Nov18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Orgenesis Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $-1.43.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Orgenesis's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.09) = 0.96330275229358
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=-1.43*13.5514
=-19.38

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(-19.38-2.10)/-19.38
=N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Orgenesis  (NAS:ORGS) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Orgenesis Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Orgenesis's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Orgenesis Business Description

Orgenesis logo
Industry
Healthcare » Biotechnology NAICS : 325412 SIC : 2834
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
20271 Goldenrod Lane, Germantown, MD, USA, 20876
Orgenesis Inc is a part of the healthcare sector. It is a fully-integrated biopharmaceutical company focused on developing trans-differentiation technologies for diabetes and vertically integrating manufacturing that can optimize its abilities to scale-up its technologies for clinical trials and eventual commercialization. The group operates in two segments namely CDMO and POC. The company is also engaged in applying its disciplined execution to emerging technologies of other cell therapy markets in such areas as cell-based cancer immunotherapies and neurodegenerative diseases.
Executives
Sidransky David director JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY 720 RUTLAND AVENUE BALTIMORE MD 21205
Reithinger Neil officer: CFO, Treasurer and Secretary 14950 N. 83RD PLACE SUITE 1 SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
Philips Mario director C/O ATMI, INC DANBURY CT 06810
Ferber Sarah officer: Chief Scientific Officer 17B HAHASKALA STREET TEL AVIV L3 67890
Yachin Guy director 7 ORCHARD WAY N POTOMAC MD 20854
Nanda Ashish director 2301, 23RD FLOOR, TIFFANY TOWERS CLUSTER W, JLT, DUBAI, UAE DUBAI C0 4452
Bedoret Denis officer: See Remarks 48, RUE AUGUSTE PICCARD GOSSELIES C9 6041
Universite Libre De Bruxelles other: less than 10% AVENUE F, ROOSEVELT, 50 BRUSSELS C9 1050
Theodorus Ii Sa other: less than 10% ALLEE DE LA RECHERCHE, 12 BRUSSELS C9 1070
Theodorus Sca other: less than 10% ALLEE DE LA RECHERCHE, 12 BRUSSELS C9 1070
Belenger Olivier other: less than 10% DIEWEG, 69 BRUSSELS C9 1070
Shvartz Oded 10 percent owner 130 BIRUINTEI BVD. PANTELIMON, ILFOV S5 0000000
Bultot Hugues director AVENUE DE L??HORIZON 24 WOLUWE SAINT PIERRE C9 1150
Buyse Chris Georges Frans director BAILLET LATOURLEI 119A BRUSSELS C9 2390
Tenne Joseph officer: CFO Treasurer Secretary 6225 NEIL ROAD, SUITE 300 C/O ORMAT TECHNOLOGIES, INC. RENO NV 89511

Orgenesis Headlines

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