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Photronics Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $27.78 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-08-09), Photronics's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $27.78.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Photronics's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Photronics is 13.10%.

The industry rank for Photronics's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:


Photronics Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Photronics's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Photronics Annual Data
Trend Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 Oct21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Photronics Quarterly Data
Jul17 Oct17 Jan18 Apr18 Jul18 Oct18 Jan19 Apr19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Photronics Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $2.05.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Photronics's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.09) = 0.96330275229358
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=2.05*13.5514
=27.78

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(27.78-24.14)/27.78
=13.10 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Photronics  (NAS:PLAB) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Photronics Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Photronics's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Photronics Business Description

Photronics logo
Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
15 Secor Road, Brookfield, CT, USA, 06804
Photronics is a U.S.-based company that is principally engaged in manufacturing photomasks. The photomasks are photographic quartz plates that contain microscopic images of electronic circuits that are used as a component in the manufacture of integrated circuits and flat-panel displays. The revenue from products designed for integrated circuits production accounts for the majority of total revenue, with the rest derived from products for flat-panel display production. The company's assets are located in Taiwan, Korea, and the United States. It generates revenue worldwide, including the United States, Europe, Taiwan, Korea, China, and elsewhere in Asia, with Asia contributing the majority of total revenue.
Executives
Lewis Adam M director 15 SECOR ROAD BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Liao Daniel Jl director 2045 EAST INNOVATION CIRCLE TEMPE AZ 85284
Paladino Mary director 15 SECOR ROAD BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Lee Kang Jyh officer: President, Asia IC Photomask 15 SECOR ROAD BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Jordan John P officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer 600 EAST GREENWICH AVENUE WEST WARWICK RI 02893
Hsia Liang Choo director 15 SECOR RD. BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Gmt Capital Corp 10 percent owner GMT CAPITAL CORP 2300 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY SUITE 550 SOUTH ATLANTA GA 30339
Burr Richelle E officer: VP, General Counsel & Secy 15 SECOR RD BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Kirlin Peter S officer: Senior VP, U.S. & Europe 15 SECOR ROAD BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Progler Christopher J officer: VP,Chief Technology Officer 15 SECOR ROAD BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Jeong Soo Hong officer: COO, President-Asia Operations 15 SECOR ROAD BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Luttati Michael J director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 15 SECOR ROAD BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Maris Willem D director 15 SECOR ROAD BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Tyson Mitchell G director 15 SECOR ROAD BROOKFIELD CT 06804
Yomazzo Michael J director 15 SECOR ROAD PO BOX 5226 BROOKFIELD CT 06804

Photronics Headlines

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