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Royal Caribbean Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $-278.00 (As of Today)
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As of today (2021-12-07), Royal Caribbean Group's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $-278.00.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Royal Caribbean Group's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Royal Caribbean Group is N/A.


Royal Caribbean Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Royal Caribbean Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Royal Caribbean Group Annual Data
Trend Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 1.41 - -11.14 48.63 -

Royal Caribbean Group Quarterly Data
Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -349.10 - - - -

Royal Caribbean Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 8%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $-18.835.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Royal Caribbean Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.08) = 0.97222222222222
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.08) = 0.96296296296296

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=-18.835*14.7595
=-278.00

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(-278-71.64)/-278
=N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Royal Caribbean Group  (NYSE:RCL) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Royal Caribbean Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Royal Caribbean Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Royal Caribbean Group Business Description

Royal Caribbean Group logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure NAICS : 483111 SIC : 4489
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1050 Caribbean Way, Miami, FL, USA, 33132
Royal Caribbean is the world's second- largest cruise company, operating more than 60 ships across five global and partner brands in the cruise vacation industry. Brands the company operates include Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea. The company also has a 50% investment in a joint venture that operates TUI Cruises and Hapag-Lloyd Cruises, allowing it to compete on the basis of innovation, quality of ships and service, variety of itineraries, choice of destinations, and price. The company is completed the divestiture of its Azamara brand in the first quarter of 2021.
Executives
Kulovaara Harri U officer: EVP, Maritime ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISE LINES 6100 BLUE LAGOON DRIVE, SUITE 200 MIAMI FL 33126
Pujol Henry L officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD. 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
Bayley Michael W officer: Pres& CEO,Royal Caribbean Intl ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD. 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
Stein Bradley H officer: SVP, GC & ChiefComplianceOff 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
Lutoff-perlo Lisa officer: Pres & CEO, Celebrity Cruises 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
Liberty Jason T officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
A Wilhelmsen A S 10 percent owner BEDDINGEN 8 AKER BRYGGE 1250 OSLO PO BOX 1583 VIKA N 0118 OSLO NORWAY Q8 00000
Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander director ANDERS WILHELMSEN & CO. AS BEDDINGEN 8, AKER BRYGGE OSLO Q8 NO-0118
Montiel Maritza Gomez director 475 W. TERRA COTTA AVE., SUITE E CRYSTAL LAKE IL 60014
Howe Stephen R. Jr. director C/O ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD. 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
Sorensen Vagn O director ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD. 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
Pritzker Thomas director PRITZKER & PRITZKER 200 W. MADISON STREET, 38TH FLOOR CHICAGO IL 60606
Ofer Eyal director CARLYLE M.G. LIMITED 18 UPPER BROOK STREET LONDON X0 W1Y 1PD
Moore Ann S director C/O AVON PRODUCS INC 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10105-0196
Brock John director 2500 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY ATLANTA GA 30339

Royal Caribbean Group Headlines

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