Holland Colours (XAMS:HOLCO) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: €14.00 (As of Today)

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As of today (2023-06-06), Holland Colours's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is €14.00.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Holland Colours's Predictability Rank is 4.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Holland Colours is -685.71%.

The industry rank for Holland Colours's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

XAMS:HOLCO's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked worse than
86.49% of 185 companies
in the Chemicals industry
Industry Median: 1.92 vs XAMS:HOLCO: 7.86

Holland Colours Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Holland Colours's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Holland Colours Annual Data

Trend

Mar13

Mar14

Mar15

Mar16

Mar17

Mar18

Mar19

Mar20

Mar21

Mar22

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

13.48

75.43

67.75

318.50

97.85

Holland Colours Semi-Annual Data
	Mar13	Sep13	Mar14	Sep14	Mar15	Sep15	Mar16	Sep16	Mar17	Sep17	Mar18	Sep18	Mar19	Sep19	Mar20	Sep20	Mar21	Sep21	Mar22	Sep22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)																-	318.50	-	97.85	-

Holland Colours Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 9.20%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 9.20% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 9.20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = €0.847.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Holland Colours's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.092)/(1+0.1) = 0.99272727272727
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

0.847

16.526

14.00

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(14	-	110.00)	/	14
	=	-685.71 %

Holland Colours (XAMS:HOLCO) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Holland Colours Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Holland Colours (XAMS:HOLCO) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Holland Colours (XAMS:HOLCO) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HCY:Germany

Address

Halvemaanweg 1, P.O. Box 720, Apeldoorn, GE, NLD, 7323 RW

Website

https://www.hollandcolours.com

Holland Colours creates and manufactures high-quality solid and liquid colorants, masterbatches and additives. The company and its subsidiaries manufacture, distribute, and sell color concentrates. Its products are designed to be well suited for coloring rigid and flexible polyvinyl chloride, pet, polyolefins and other polymers. The company serves many different markets which include building and construction but is not limited to, profiles, pipes, siding, and cladding. In addition, to serving these markets, it also offers color concentrates for coatings, elastomers, adhesives and other applications. The company operates geographically across Europe, the United States of America and Asia.

Holland Colours (XAMS:HOLCO) Headlines

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