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Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

: $319.76 (As of Today)
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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2023-03-21), Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $319.76. The stock price of Chipotle Mexican Grill is $1627.96. Therefore, Chipotle Mexican Grill's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 5.1.

The historical rank and industry rank for Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

CMG' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.76   Med: 4.14   Max: 7.97
Current: 5.09

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Chipotle Mexican Grill was 7.97. The lowest was 1.76. And the median was 4.14.

CMG's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than
85.78% of 211 companies
in the Restaurants industry
Industry Median: 1.54 vs CMG: 5.09

Chipotle Mexican Grill Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Annual Data
Trend Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 166.28 170.69 174.02 223.85 319.76

Chipotle Mexican Grill Quarterly Data
Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 223.85 235.17 279.25 299.07 319.76

Competitive Comparison

For the Restaurants subindustry, Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Chipotle Mexican Grill Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Distribution

For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF falls in comparison to its industry or sector. The grey bar indicates the Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF's extreme value range as defined by GuruFocus.



Chipotle Mexican Grill Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Chipotle Mexican Grill's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $472.79.

Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec22)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(14.862653310476*472.7896+2368.023*0.8)/27.900
=319.76

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Chipotle Mexican Grill  (NYSE:CMG) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Chipotle Mexican Grill's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=1627.96/319.76079977056
=5.09

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Chipotle Mexican Grill Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) Business Description

Chipotle Mexican Grill logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
610 Newport Center Drive, Suite 1400, Newport Beach, CA, USA, 92660
Chipotle Mexican Grill is the largest fast-casual chain restaurant in the United States, with systemwide sales of $7.5 billion in 2021. The Mexican concept is entirely company-owned, with a footprint of more than 3,000 stores, heavily indexed to the United States (though the firm maintains a small presence in Canada, the U.K., France, and Germany). Chipotle sells burritos, burrito bowls, tacos, quesadillas, and beverages, with a selling proposition built around competitive prices, high-quality food sourcing, speed of service, and convenience. The company generates its revenue entirely from restaurant sales and delivery fees.
Executives
Scott Harlan Maw director 1411 E. MISSION AVENUE, SPOKANE WA 99202
Ali Namvar director C/O PERSHING SQUARE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Patricia Filikrushel director DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION, 100 MISSION RIDGE, GOODLETTSVILLE TN 37072
Robin S Hickenlooper director 12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Gregg L Engles director 1225 SEVENTEENTH STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Mary A Winston director 557 BROADWAY, C/O SCHOLASTIC CORP, NEW YORK NY 10012
Matt Carey director 11216 WAPLES MILL ROAD SUITE 100, FAIRFAX VA 22030
Mauricio Gutierrez director 211 CARNEGIE CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Neil Flanzraich director 4400 BISCAYNE BLVD, MIAMI FL 33137
Brian R Niccol director, officer: Chairman, CEO 1 GLEN BELL WAY, IRVINE CA 92618
Christopher W Brandt officer: Chief Marketing Officer 2202 NORTH WESTSHORE BLVD, TAMPA FL 33607
Laurie Schalow officer: Chief Corp Affairs, Food Sft 610 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1300, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Marissa Andrada officer: Chief D&I and People Officer C/O KATE SPADE & COMPANY 2 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Curtis E Garner officer: Chief Technology Officer C/O AEROHIVE NETWORKS, INC., 330 GIBRALTAR DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Scott Boatwright officer: Chief Restaurant Officer 1401 WYNKOOP STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80202

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