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Chipotle Mexican Grill Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

: $190.14 (As of Today)
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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2021-10-16), Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $190.14. The stock price of Chipotle Mexican Grill is $1830.93. Therefore, Chipotle Mexican Grill's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 9.6.

The historical rank and industry rank for Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

NYSE:CMG' s Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.76   Med: 3.9   Max: 9.72
Current: 9.63

1.76
9.72

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Chipotle Mexican Grill was 9.72. The lowest was 1.76. And the median was 3.90.

NYSE:CMG's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF is ranked lower than
99.99% of the 59 Companies
in the Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 1.55 vs. NYSE:CMG: 9.63 )

Chipotle Mexican Grill Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Annual Data
Trend Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 170.65 164.56 166.28 170.69 169.87

Chipotle Mexican Grill Quarterly Data
Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 164.03 170.85 169.87 186.43 190.14

Competitive Comparison

For the Restaurants subindustry, Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Chipotle Mexican Grill Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Distribution

For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF falls into.



Chipotle Mexican Grill Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Chipotle Mexican Grill's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $312.55.

Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Jun21)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(11.773635598597*312.54576+2174.158*0.8)/28.501
=190.14

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Chipotle Mexican Grill  (NYSE:CMG) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Chipotle Mexican Grill's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=1830.93/190.1381104567
=9.63

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Chipotle Mexican Grill Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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Chipotle Mexican Grill Business Description

Chipotle Mexican Grill logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants NAICS : 722513 SIC : 5812
Address
610 Newport Center Drive, Suite 1300, Newport Beach, CA, USA, 92660
Chipotle Mexican Grill is the largest fast-casual chain restaurant in the United States, with systemwide sales approaching $6 billion in 2020. The Mexican concept is entirely company-owned, with a footprint of 2,850 stores heavily indexed to the United States, though the firm maintains a small presence in Canada, the U.K., France, and Germany. Chipotle sells burritos, burrito bowls, tacos, quesadillas, and beverages, with a selling proposition built around competitive prices, high-quality food sourcing, speed of service, and convenience. The company generates its revenue entirely from restaurant sales and delivery fees.
Executives
Engles Gregg L director 1225 SEVENTEENTH STREET SUITE 1000 DENVER CO 80202
Winston Mary A director 557 BROADWAY C/O SCHOLASTIC CORP NEW YORK NY 10012
Niccol Brian R director, officer: Chairman, CEO 1 GLEN BELL WAY IRVINE CA 92618
Baldocchi Albert S director 1601 HIGH STREET BOULDER CO 80304
Boatwright Scott officer: Chief Restaurant Officer 1401 WYNKOOP STREET SUITE 500 DENVER CO 80202
Pringle Robin S director 12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Maw Scott Harlan director 1411 E. MISSION AVENUE SPOKANE WA 99202
Paull Matthew H director MCDONALDS CORP 2915 JORIE BLVD OAK BROOK IL 60523
Flanzraich Neil director 4400 BISCAYNE BLVD MIAMI FL 33137
Cappuccio Paul T director TIME WARNER INC. ONE TIME WARNER CENTER NEW YORK NY 10019
Filikrushel Patricia director DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION 100 MISSION RIDGE GOODLETTSVILLE TN 37072
Namvar Ali director C/O PERSHING SQUARE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10019
Garner Curtis E officer: Chief Technology Officer C/O AEROHIVE NETWORKS, INC. 330 GIBRALTAR DRIVE SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Andrada Marissa officer: Chief People Officer C/O KATE SPADE & COMPANY 2 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10016
Schalow Laurie officer: Chief Corp Reputation Officer 610 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE SUITE 1300 NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660

Chipotle Mexican Grill Headlines

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