Churchill Downs (XTER:CHR) Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based): 55.20% (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


XTER:CHR Churchill Downs Inc XTER:CHR
62 GF Score
Price €75.50
GF Value €137.17
Valuation Possible Value Trap
! 4 Warning Signs
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What is Churchill Downs Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)?

Churchill Downs XTER:CHR -0.66% 62 Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) is 55.20% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates XTER:CHR with a GF Score™ of 62/100 and a GF Value™ of €137.17 (Possible Value Trap). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) - Current Price) / Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based).

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

As of today (2026-06-25), Churchill Downs's Predictability Rank is 2.5-Stars. Churchill Downs's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is €168.53 and current share price is €75.50. Consequently,

Churchill Downs's Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model is 55.20%.

XTER:CHR vs : Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) Comparison

For the Gambling subindustry, Churchill Downs's Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Churchill Downs Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) vs Travel & Leisure Industry

For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Churchill Downs's Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Churchill Downs's Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) falls into.


XTER:CHR
62GF Score
Churchill Downs Inc XTER:CHR
Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Churchill Downs Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) Calculation

Churchill Downs's Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) for today is calculated as

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(168.53-75.50)/168.53
=55.20 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

The intrinsic value is calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow.

What does a Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) of 55.20% mean?
Churchill Downs (XTER:CHR) has a Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) of 55.20% as of Jun. 25, 2026. Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) is the percent difference between the current price and the intrinsic DCF Earnings price. View historical data on Churchill Downs.
Is Churchill Downs' Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) too high?
Churchill Downs' current Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) is 55.20%. Overall, Churchill Downs has a GF Score™ of 62/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Churchill Downs' Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) compare to ?
Churchill Downs' Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) of 55.20% can be compared against companies in the Travel & Leisure industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) for a Travel & Leisure company?
A good Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) depends on the Travel & Leisure industry context. However, Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) mean?
A high Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) is the percent difference between the current price and the intrinsic DCF Earnings price. View historical data on Churchill Downs. Churchill Downs's current Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) is 55.20%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Churchill Downs stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Churchill Downs (XTER:CHR) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is €137.17, compared to a current price of €75.50 — trading 45% below its estimated fair value. The current Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) is 55.20%. Churchill Downs' overall GF Score™ is 62/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) calculated?
Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Churchill Downs (XTER:CHR), the current Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) is 55.20% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Churchill Downs (XTER:CHR) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Churchill Downs stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of €75.50 is trading 45% below its estimated GF Value™ of €137.17. GuruFocus considers Churchill Downs to be Possible Value Trap.

Key valuation signals for XTER:CHR:

  • Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based): 55.20%
  • GF Value™: €137.17 vs. price of €75.50 (45% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 62/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the XTER:CHR stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Churchill Downs Business Description

Comparable Companies
Other Exchanges CHDN:USAC2HD34:Brazil
Address 600 North Hurstbourne Parkway, Suite 400, Louisville, KY, USA, 40222
Churchill Downs Inc is a gaming entertainment, online wagering, and racing company. It operates through three business segments: Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services, and Gaming. The Live and Historical Racing segment includes live and historical pari-mutuel racing. The Wagering Services segment includes the revenue and expenses from pari-mutuel wagers through TwinSpires, companies retail and online sports betting business and Gaming segment includes revenue and expenses for the casino properties and associated racetracks that support the casino license. The Gaming segment generates revenue and expenses from slot machines, video lottery terminals, video poker, HRMs, ancillary food and beverage services, hotel services, commission on pari-mutuel wagering, and racing events.
62GF Score

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Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

€75.50
Price
€137.17
GF Value