Churchill Downs (XTER:CHR) Beneish M-Score: -2.84 (As of Jun. 24, 2026)


XTER:CHR Churchill Downs Inc XTER:CHR
62 GF Score
Price €75.50
GF Value €137.17
Valuation Possible Value Trap
! 4 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Churchill Downs Beneish M-Score?

Churchill Downs XTER:CHR -0.66% 62 Beneish M-Score is -2.84 as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus rates XTER:CHR with a GF Score™ of 62/100 and a GF Value™ of €137.17 (Possible Value Trap). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review. Among 823 Travel & Leisure companies, Churchill Downs ranks better than 69.26% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.84 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Churchill Downs's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

XTER:CHR' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.32   Med: -2.66   Max: -0.99
Current: -2.84

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Churchill Downs was -0.99. The lowest was -3.32. And the median was -2.66.


Churchill Downs Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Churchill Downs's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Churchill Downs Beneish M-Score Chart

Churchill Downs Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.69 -2.80 -2.55 -2.90 -2.80

Churchill Downs Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.87 -2.92 -2.83 -2.80 -2.84

XTER:CHR vs : Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Gambling subindustry, Churchill Downs's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Churchill Downs Beneish M-Score vs Travel & Leisure Industry

For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Churchill Downs's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Churchill Downs's Beneish M-Score falls into.


XTER:CHR
62GF Score
Churchill Downs Inc XTER:CHR
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Churchill Downs Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Churchill Downs for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9221+0.528 * 1.0004+0.404 * 1.015+0.892 * 0.9805+0.115 * 0.9339
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9949+4.679 * -0.070409-0.327 * 0.9887
=-2.90

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was €91 Mil.
Revenue was 573.495 + 568.679 + 581.916 + 810.125 = €2,534 Mil.
Gross Profit was 175.595 + 167.982 + 174.064 + 339.951 = €858 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €391 Mil.
Total Assets was €6,475 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €2,517 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €203 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €215 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €723 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €4,208 Mil.
Net Income was 71.795 + 43.81 + 32.461 + 188.052 = €336 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 35.465 + 28.78 + -6.986 + 30.345 = €88 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 255.175 + 81.984 + 159.92 + 207.3 = €704 Mil.
Total Receivables was €100 Mil.
Revenue was 594.775 + 596.111 + 566.279 + 827.46 = €2,585 Mil.
Gross Profit was 175.75 + 171.614 + 167.226 + 360.452 = €875 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €418 Mil.
Total Assets was €6,796 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €2,689 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €202 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €221 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €783 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €4,453 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(90.825 / 2534.215) / (100.455 / 2584.625)
=0.03584 / 0.038866
=0.9221

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(875.042 / 2584.625) / (857.592 / 2534.215)
=0.338557 / 0.338405
=1.0004

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (390.98 + 2517.15) / 6474.525) / (1 - (418.47 + 2689.252) / 6796.067)
=0.550835 / 0.542718
=1.015

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=2534.215 / 2584.625
=0.9805

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(201.721 / (201.721 + 2689.252)) / (203.262 / (203.262 + 2517.15))
=0.069776 / 0.074717
=0.9339

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(215.42 / 2534.215) / (220.824 / 2584.625)
=0.085005 / 0.085438
=0.9949

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((4208.225 + 723.14) / 6474.525) / ((4452.857 + 782.642) / 6796.067)
=0.761657 / 0.770372
=0.9887

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(336.118 - 87.604 - 704.379) / 6474.525
=-0.070409

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Churchill Downs has a M-score of -2.90 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.84 mean?
Churchill Downs (XTER:CHR) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.84 as of Jun. 24, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Churchill Downs and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Churchill Downs ranks #253 out of 823 companies in the Travel & Leisure industry, placing it in the top 30.7%.
Is Churchill Downs' Beneish M-Score too high?
Churchill Downs' current Beneish M-Score is -2.84. Based on the distribution chart, Churchill Downs ranks #253 out of 823 companies in the Travel & Leisure industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Churchill Downs has a GF Score™ of 62/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Churchill Downs' Beneish M-Score compare to ?
According to the Travel & Leisure industry distribution chart, Churchill Downs ranks #253 out of 823 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts Churchill Downs in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Travel & Leisure company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Travel & Leisure industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Churchill Downs and its competitors. Churchill Downs's current Beneish M-Score is -2.84. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Churchill Downs stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Churchill Downs (XTER:CHR) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is €137.17, compared to a current price of €75.50 — trading 45% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.84. Churchill Downs' overall GF Score™ is 62/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Churchill Downs (XTER:CHR), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.84 as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Churchill Downs (XTER:CHR) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Churchill Downs stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of €75.50 is trading 45% below its estimated GF Value™ of €137.17. GuruFocus considers Churchill Downs to be Possible Value Trap.

Key valuation signals for XTER:CHR:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.84
  • GF Value™: €137.17 vs. price of €75.50 (45% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 62/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the XTER:CHR stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Churchill Downs Business Description

Comparable Companies
Other Exchanges CHDN:USAC2HD34:Brazil
Address 600 North Hurstbourne Parkway, Suite 400, Louisville, KY, USA, 40222
Churchill Downs Inc is a gaming entertainment, online wagering, and racing company. It operates through three business segments: Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services, and Gaming. The Live and Historical Racing segment includes live and historical pari-mutuel racing. The Wagering Services segment includes the revenue and expenses from pari-mutuel wagers through TwinSpires, companies retail and online sports betting business and Gaming segment includes revenue and expenses for the casino properties and associated racetracks that support the casino license. The Gaming segment generates revenue and expenses from slot machines, video lottery terminals, video poker, HRMs, ancillary food and beverage services, hotel services, commission on pari-mutuel wagering, and racing events.
62GF Score

Get the complete analysis for XTER:CHR

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

€75.50
Price
€137.17
GF Value