China Hongqiao Group (HKSE:01378) Beneish M-Score: -2.96 (As of Jul. 20, 2026)

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HKSE:01378 China Hongqiao Group Ltd HKSE:01378
90 GF Score
Price HK$22.66
GF Value HK$14.69
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 2 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is China Hongqiao Group Beneish M-Score?

China Hongqiao Group HKSE:01378 +2.53% 90 Beneish M-Score is -2.96 as of Jul. 20, 2026. GuruFocus rates HKSE:01378 with a GF Score™ of 90/100 and a GF Value™ of HK$14.69 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review. Among 680 Metals & Mining companies, China Hongqiao Group ranks better than 79.56% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.96 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for China Hongqiao Group's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

HKSE:01378' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.96   Med: -2.54   Max: -1.75
Current: -2.96

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of China Hongqiao Group was -1.75. The lowest was -2.96. And the median was -2.54.


China Hongqiao Group Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for China Hongqiao Group's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

China Hongqiao Group Beneish M-Score Chart

China Hongqiao Group Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.83 -2.19 -2.57 -2.58 -2.96

China Hongqiao Group Semi-Annual Data
Jun16 Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 Jun18 Dec18 Jun19 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23 Jun24 Dec24 Jun25 Dec25
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.57 0.00 -2.58 0.00 -2.96

HKSE:01378 vs AA, CENX, CSTM: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Aluminum subindustry, China Hongqiao Group's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


China Hongqiao Group Beneish M-Score vs Metals & Mining Industry

For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, China Hongqiao Group's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where China Hongqiao Group's Beneish M-Score falls into.


HKSE:01378
90GF Score
China Hongqiao Group Ltd HKSE:01378
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

China Hongqiao Group Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of China Hongqiao Group for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.5934+0.528 * 1.0561+0.404 * 1.1195+0.892 * 1.0757+0.115 * 0.9726
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.8537+4.679 * -0.06667-0.327 * 0.8956
=-2.96

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec25) TTM:Last Year (Dec24) TTM:
Total Receivables was HK$11,919 Mil.
Revenue was HK$179,356 Mil.
Gross Profit was HK$45,852 Mil.
Total Current Assets was HK$126,565 Mil.
Total Assets was HK$271,076 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was HK$88,160 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was HK$7,772 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was HK$5,544 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was HK$59,754 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was HK$50,099 Mil.
Net Income was HK$25,007 Mil.
Gross Profit was HK$0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was HK$43,079 Mil.
Total Receivables was HK$18,674 Mil.
Revenue was HK$166,737 Mil.
Gross Profit was HK$45,016 Mil.
Total Current Assets was HK$117,257 Mil.
Total Assets was HK$244,673 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was HK$81,983 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was HK$7,012 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was HK$6,037 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was HK$82,192 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was HK$28,521 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(11918.99 / 179356.239) / (18673.753 / 166736.98)
=0.066454 / 0.111995
=0.5934

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(45015.928 / 166736.98) / (45851.891 / 179356.239)
=0.269982 / 0.255647
=1.0561

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (126565.09 + 88160.127) / 271076.364) / (1 - (117256.614 + 81983.179) / 244673.103)
=0.207879 / 0.18569
=1.1195

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=179356.239 / 166736.98
=1.0757

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(7012.481 / (7012.481 + 81983.179)) / (7772.373 / (7772.373 + 88160.127))
=0.078796 / 0.081019
=0.9726

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(5543.58 / 179356.239) / (6036.589 / 166736.98)
=0.030908 / 0.036204
=0.8537

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((50098.795 + 59753.69) / 271076.364) / ((28520.905 + 82192.117) / 244673.103)
=0.405246 / 0.452494
=0.8956

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(25006.674 - 0 - 43079.263) / 271076.364
=-0.06667

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

China Hongqiao Group has a M-score of -2.96 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.96 mean?
China Hongqiao Group (HKSE:01378) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.96 as of Jul. 20, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on China Hongqiao Group and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, China Hongqiao Group ranks #139 out of 680 companies in the Metals & Mining industry, placing it in the top 20.4%.
Is China Hongqiao Group's Beneish M-Score too high?
China Hongqiao Group's current Beneish M-Score is -2.96. Based on the distribution chart, China Hongqiao Group ranks #139 out of 680 companies in the Metals & Mining industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, China Hongqiao Group has a GF Score™ of 90/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does China Hongqiao Group's Beneish M-Score compare to AA and CENX?
According to the Metals & Mining industry distribution chart, China Hongqiao Group ranks #139 out of 680 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places China Hongqiao Group in the top 20% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Metals & Mining company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Metals & Mining industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on China Hongqiao Group and its competitors. China Hongqiao Group's current Beneish M-Score is -2.96. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is China Hongqiao Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Hongqiao Group (HKSE:01378) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is HK$14.69, compared to a current price of HK$22.66 — trading 54.3% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.96. China Hongqiao Group's overall GF Score™ is 90/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For China Hongqiao Group (HKSE:01378), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.96 as of Jul. 20, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is China Hongqiao Group (HKSE:01378) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Hongqiao Group stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of HK$22.66 is trading 54.3% above its estimated GF Value™ of HK$14.69. GuruFocus considers China Hongqiao Group to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for HKSE:01378:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.96
  • GF Value™: HK$14.69 vs. price of HK$22.66 (54.3% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 90/100 with 2 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the HKSE:01378 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


China Hongqiao Group Business Description

Address Huixian One Road, Zouping Economic Development District, Shandong Province, Zouping, CHN, 256200
China Hongqiao Group Ltd manufactures and sells aluminum products. Its products include molten aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots, aluminum busbars, aluminum alloy processing products, and alumina products. The company has the manufacturing and sale of aluminum products segment. The company's geographical segments are China and Indonesia out of which China accounts for the majority of the revenue.
90GF Score

Get the complete analysis for HKSE:01378

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

HK$22.66
Price
HK$14.69
GF Value