China Aoyuan Group (HKSE:03883) Beneish M-Score: -2.64 (As of Aug. 31, 2026)

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What is China Aoyuan Group Beneish M-Score?

China Aoyuan Group HKSE:03883 -2.44% Beneish M-Score is -2.64 as of Aug. 31, 2026. The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,680 Real Estate companies, China Aoyuan Group ranks better than 67.92% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.64 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for China Aoyuan Group's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

HKSE:03883' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -5.43   Med: -2.2   Max: -0.21
Current: -2.64

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of China Aoyuan Group was -0.21. The lowest was -5.43. And the median was -2.20.

China Aoyuan Group Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for China Aoyuan Group's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

China Aoyuan Group Beneish M-Score Chart

China Aoyuan Group Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -4.06 -5.43 -3.67 -2.09 -2.64

China Aoyuan Group Semi-Annual Data
Jun16 Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 Jun18 Dec18 Jun19 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23 Jun24 Dec24 Jun25 Dec25
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -3.67 0.00 -2.09 0.00 -2.64

China Aoyuan Group Beneish M-Score Competitor Comparison

For the Real Estate - Development subindustry, China Aoyuan Group's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

China Aoyuan Group Beneish M-Score vs Real Estate Industry

For the Real Estate industry and Real Estate sector, China Aoyuan Group's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where China Aoyuan Group's Beneish M-Score falls into.


China Aoyuan Group Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of China Aoyuan Group for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9286+0.528 * 2.1616+0.404 * 0.9288+0.892 * 0.9899+0.115 * 0.715
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.6673+4.679 * -0.137183-0.327 * 1.1692
=-2.64

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec25) TTM:Last Year (Dec24) TTM:
Total Receivables was HK$29,361 Mil.
Revenue was HK$10,225 Mil.
Gross Profit was HK$-7,915 Mil.
Total Current Assets was HK$128,432 Mil.
Total Assets was HK$141,651 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was HK$2,030 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was HK$338 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was HK$1,053 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was HK$172,636 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was HK$18,161 Mil.
Net Income was HK$-19,624 Mil.
Gross Profit was HK$0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was HK$-192 Mil.
 Total Receivables was HK$31,941 Mil.
Revenue was HK$10,330 Mil.
Gross Profit was HK$-17,284 Mil.
Total Current Assets was HK$152,102 Mil.
Total Assets was HK$170,299 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was HK$3,714 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was HK$422 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was HK$1,594 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was HK$173,457 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was HK$22,728 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(29360.917 / 10224.944) / (31940.575 / 10329.579)
=2.871499 / 3.092147
=0.9286

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(-17284.226 / 10329.579) / (-7914.943 / 10224.944)
=-1.673275 / -0.774082
=2.1616

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (128432.069 + 2029.51) / 141651.309) / (1 - (152101.769 + 3713.599) / 170299.156)
=0.078995 / 0.085049
=0.9288

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=10224.944 / 10329.579
=0.9899

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(422.413 / (422.413 + 3713.599)) / (338.215 / (338.215 + 2029.51))
=0.102131 / 0.142844
=0.715

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(1052.815 / 10224.944) / (1593.776 / 10329.579)
=0.102965 / 0.154292
=0.6673

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((18160.665 + 172636.228) / 141651.309) / ((22728.024 + 173456.967) / 170299.156)
=1.346948 / 1.152002
=1.1692

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(-19624.27 - 0 - -192.121) / 141651.309
=-0.137183

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

China Aoyuan Group has a M-score of -2.64 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.64 mean?
China Aoyuan Group (HKSE:03883) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.64 as of Aug. 31, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on China Aoyuan Group and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, China Aoyuan Group ranks #539 out of 1680 companies in the Real Estate industry, placing it in the top 32.1%.
Is China Aoyuan Group's Beneish M-Score too high?
China Aoyuan Group's current Beneish M-Score is -2.64. Based on the distribution chart, China Aoyuan Group ranks #539 out of 1680 companies in the Real Estate industry, which is above the industry midpoint.
How does China Aoyuan Group's Beneish M-Score compare to competitors?
According to the Real Estate industry distribution chart, China Aoyuan Group ranks #539 out of 1680 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts China Aoyuan Group in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Real Estate company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Real Estate industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on China Aoyuan Group and its competitors. China Aoyuan Group's current Beneish M-Score is -2.64. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is China Aoyuan Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Aoyuan Group (HKSE:03883) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is HK$0.08, compared to a current price of HK$0.04 — trading 50% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.64. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For China Aoyuan Group (HKSE:03883), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.64 as of Aug. 31, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

China Aoyuan Group Business Description

Other Exchanges 47C:Germany
Address No. 108, Huangpu Avenue West, Aoyuan Mansion, Tianhe District, Guangzhou, CHN
China Aoyuan Group Ltd is a developer and operator of composite real estate in China. It is also engaged in the health-themed related industries to promote a healthy lifestyle in the city. Its segments include Property development engaged in development and sale of properties; Property investment engaged in lease of investment properties; and Others engaged in hotel operation, provision of services and sales of goods. It derives the majority of the revenue from Property development segment. Geographically, it operates in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Canda with majority of revenue deriving from Mainland China.