ZTO Express (Cayman) (LTS:0A33) Beneish M-Score: -2.51 (As of Jun. 27, 2026)


LTS:0A33 ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc LTS:0A33
98 GF Score
Price $21.98
GF Value $28.18
Valuation Modestly Undervalued
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What is ZTO Express (Cayman) Beneish M-Score?

ZTO Express (Cayman) LTS:0A33 +1.38% 98 Beneish M-Score is -2.51 as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus rates LTS:0A33 with a GF Score™ of 98/100 and a GF Value™ of $28.18 (Modestly Undervalued). Among 966 Transportation companies, ZTO Express (Cayman) ranks worse than 57.14% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.51 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

LTS:0A33' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.09   Med: -2.42   Max: 2.1
Current: -2.51

During the past 12 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of ZTO Express (Cayman) was 2.10. The lowest was -3.09. And the median was -2.42.


ZTO Express (Cayman) Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Beneish M-Score Chart

ZTO Express (Cayman) Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.29 -3.02 -2.83 -2.35 -2.45

ZTO Express (Cayman) Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.39 -2.32 -2.53 -2.45 -2.51

LTS:0A33 vs EXPD, CHRW, FDXFw: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Integrated Freight & Logistics subindustry, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


ZTO Express (Cayman) Beneish M-Score vs Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Beneish M-Score falls into.


LTS:0A33
98GF Score
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc LTS:0A33
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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ZTO Express (Cayman) Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of ZTO Express (Cayman) for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9936+0.528 * 1.1915+0.404 * 0.7746+0.892 * 1.1655+0.115 * 1
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9434+4.679 * -0.033798-0.327 * 1.1092
=-2.51

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was $334 Mil.
Revenue was 1927.187 + 2060.243 + 1665.571 + 1647.792 = $7,301 Mil.
Gross Profit was 469.41 + 522.753 + 414.96 + 410.06 = $1,817 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $5,637 Mil.
Total Assets was $14,187 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $5,305 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $385 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $3,437 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $1,536 Mil.
Net Income was 307.357 + 372.75 + 354.281 + 269.948 = $1,304 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 11.316 + -3.88 + 20.658 + -1.708 = $26 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 404.673 + 600.05 + 450.757 + 301.962 = $1,757 Mil.
Total Receivables was $289 Mil.
Revenue was 1502.416 + 1774.514 + 1508.627 + 1478.485 = $6,264 Mil.
Gross Profit was 370.963 + 516.395 + 471.285 + 499.053 = $1,858 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $4,217 Mil.
Total Assets was $12,849 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $4,839 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $351 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $4,008 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $52 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(334.311 / 7300.793) / (288.696 / 6264.042)
=0.045791 / 0.046088
=0.9936

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1857.696 / 6264.042) / (1817.183 / 7300.793)
=0.296565 / 0.248902
=1.1915

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (5637.364 + 5305.34) / 14187.056) / (1 - (4217.068 + 4839.025) / 12849.449)
=0.228684 / 0.295215
=0.7746

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=7300.793 / 6264.042
=1.1655

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(0 / (0 + 4839.025)) / (0 / (0 + 5305.34))
=0 / 0
=1

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(385.415 / 7300.793) / (350.51 / 6264.042)
=0.052791 / 0.055956
=0.9434

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((1535.599 + 3437.174) / 14187.056) / ((52.449 + 4008.17) / 12849.449)
=0.350515 / 0.316015
=1.1092

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(1304.336 - 26.386 - 1757.442) / 14187.056
=-0.033798

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

ZTO Express (Cayman) has a M-score of -2.51 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.51 mean?
ZTO Express (Cayman) (LTS:0A33) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.51 as of Jun. 27, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on ZTO Express (Cayman) and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, ZTO Express (Cayman) ranks #552 out of 966 companies in the Transportation industry, placing it in the top 57.1%.
Is ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Beneish M-Score too high?
ZTO Express (Cayman)'s current Beneish M-Score is -2.51. Based on the distribution chart, ZTO Express (Cayman) ranks #552 out of 966 companies in the Transportation industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, ZTO Express (Cayman) has a GF Score™ of 98/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Beneish M-Score compare to EXPD and CHRW?
According to the Transportation industry distribution chart, ZTO Express (Cayman) ranks #552 out of 966 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places ZTO Express (Cayman) in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Transportation company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Transportation industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on ZTO Express (Cayman) and its competitors. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s current Beneish M-Score is -2.51. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is ZTO Express (Cayman) stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, ZTO Express (Cayman) (LTS:0A33) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $28.18, compared to a current price of $21.98 — trading 22% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.51. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s overall GF Score™ is 98/100. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For ZTO Express (Cayman) (LTS:0A33), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.51 as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is ZTO Express (Cayman) (LTS:0A33) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, ZTO Express (Cayman) stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of $21.98 is trading 22% below its estimated GF Value™ of $28.18. GuruFocus considers ZTO Express (Cayman) to be Modestly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for LTS:0A33:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.51
  • GF Value™: $28.18 vs. price of $21.98 (22% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 98/100

No single metric tells the full story. See the LTS:0A33 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


ZTO Express (Cayman) Business Description

Address No. 1685 Huazhi Road, Building One, Qingpu District, Shanghai, CHN, 201708
ZTO Express is China's largest express delivery company by parcel volume, with a volume share of 19.4% in 2024. It operates a network partner model where it provides line-haul transportation and sorting services, while its local network partners provide first-mile pickup and last-mile delivery services under the ZTO brand name. Headquartered in Shanghai, the company was founded in 2002 by Meisong Lai, who remains chair, CEO, and its major shareholder with 78% voting rights as of March 31, 2025. ZTO's strategic shareholder is leading China e-commerce company Alibaba Group with around an 8.9% interest.
98GF Score

Get the complete analysis for LTS:0A33

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$21.98
Price
$28.18
GF Value