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Bavarian Nordic AS (LTS:0DPB) Beneish M-Score : -1.18 (As of Dec. 15, 2024)


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What is Bavarian Nordic AS Beneish M-Score?

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Warning Sign:

Beneish M-Score -1.18 higher than -1.78, which implies that the company might have manipulated its financial results.

The historical rank and industry rank for Bavarian Nordic AS's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

LTS:0DPB' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -5.23   Med: -1.81   Max: 25.61
Current: -1.18

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Bavarian Nordic AS was 25.61. The lowest was -5.23. And the median was -1.81.


Bavarian Nordic AS Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Bavarian Nordic AS's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Bavarian Nordic AS Beneish M-Score Chart

Bavarian Nordic AS Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 25.61 -0.69 -0.95 -2.54 -0.83

Bavarian Nordic AS Quarterly Data
Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -1.64 -0.83 -2.66 -3.07 -1.18

Competitive Comparison of Bavarian Nordic AS's Beneish M-Score

For the Biotechnology subindustry, Bavarian Nordic AS's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Bavarian Nordic AS's Beneish M-Score Distribution in the Biotechnology Industry

For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, Bavarian Nordic AS's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Bavarian Nordic AS's Beneish M-Score falls into.



Bavarian Nordic AS Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Bavarian Nordic AS for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.8635+0.528 * 1.2727+0.404 * 0.9446+0.892 * 1.0278+0.115 * 13.6649
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.1034+4.679 * -0.033075-0.327 * 1.0264
=-1.18

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Sep24) TTM:Last Year (Sep23) TTM:
Total Receivables was kr1,035 Mil.
Revenue was 1363.361 + 1427.497 + 831.472 + 2447.26 = kr6,070 Mil.
Gross Profit was 579.598 + 719.95 + 265.235 + 1614.46 = kr3,179 Mil.
Total Current Assets was kr5,190 Mil.
Total Assets was kr13,949 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was kr2,312 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was kr53 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was kr931 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was kr3,079 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was kr77 Mil.
Net Income was 70.492 + 261.128 + -114.451 + 901.39 = kr1,119 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = kr0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -71.632 + 630.866 + 435.229 + 585.447 = kr1,580 Mil.
Total Receivables was kr1,166 Mil.
Revenue was 1376.4 + 1986.627 + 1252.053 + 1290.473 = kr5,906 Mil.
Gross Profit was 862.032 + 1302.898 + 823.656 + 948.19 = kr3,937 Mil.
Total Current Assets was kr4,461 Mil.
Total Assets was kr13,399 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was kr2,381 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was kr1,065 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was kr821 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was kr2,887 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was kr67 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(1034.934 / 6069.59) / (1166.148 / 5905.553)
=0.170511 / 0.197466
=0.8635

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(3936.776 / 5905.553) / (3179.243 / 6069.59)
=0.666623 / 0.523799
=1.2727

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (5189.798 + 2311.813) / 13948.777) / (1 - (4461.201 + 2381.439) / 13399.238)
=0.462203 / 0.489326
=0.9446

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=6069.59 / 5905.553
=1.0278

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(1064.741 / (1064.741 + 2381.439)) / (53.48 / (53.48 + 2311.813))
=0.308963 / 0.02261
=13.6649

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(930.81 / 6069.59) / (820.762 / 5905.553)
=0.153356 / 0.138981
=1.1034

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((76.649 + 3079.228) / 13948.777) / ((66.544 + 2887.07) / 13399.238)
=0.226248 / 0.220431
=1.0264

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(1118.559 - 0 - 1579.91) / 13948.777
=-0.033075

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Bavarian Nordic AS has a M-score of -1.18 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.


Bavarian Nordic AS Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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Bavarian Nordic AS Business Description

Address
Philip Heymans Alle 3, Hellerup, DNK, DK-2900
Bavarian Nordic AS is a biotechnology company focused on the research, development, manufacturing, and commercialization of life-saving vaccines. The vast majority of the company's revenue is generated in the United States, Germany, and other geographic markets. Its products include Encepur, Jynneos, Rabipur, Vaxchora and Vivotif.

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