Morgan Stanley Beneish M-Score Calculation
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Morgan Stanley for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
| M | = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * DSRI | + | 0.528 * GMI | + | 0.404 * AQI | + | 0.892 * SGI | + | 0.115 * DEPI |
| = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * 0.9864 | + | 0.528 * 1 | + | 0.404 * 1 | + | 0.892 * 1.1356 | + | 0.115 * 0.9992 |
| - | 0.172 * SGAI | + | 4.679 * TATA | - | 0.327 * LVGI |
| - | 0.172 * 0.95 | + | 4.679 * 0.008961 | - | 0.327 * 1.0607 |
| = | -2.34 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
| This Year (Dec24) TTM: | Last Year (Dec23) TTM: |
Total Receivables was €82,281 Mil.
Revenue was 14366.065 + 12919.439 + 13028.296 + 13077.8 = €53,392 Mil.
Gross Profit was 14366.065 + 12919.439 + 13028.296 + 13077.8 = €53,392 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €0 Mil.
Total Assets was €1,160,393 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €22 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €4,793 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €25,130 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €275,781 Mil.
Net Income was 3546.87 + 2872.388 + 2857.604 + 3139.04 = €12,416 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = €0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 11269 + -15608.023 + 2345.725 + 4011.2 = €2,018 Mil.
|
Total Receivables was €73,456 Mil.
Revenue was 11032.427 + 11635.666 + 11613.186 + 12736.024 = €47,017 Mil.
Gross Profit was 11032.427 + 11635.666 + 11613.186 + 12736.024 = €47,017 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €0 Mil.
Total Assets was €1,094,616 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €21 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €3,944 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €23,294 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €245,267 Mil.
|
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
| DSRI | = | (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) | / | (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) |
| = | (82280.89 / 53391.6) | / | (73456.285 / 47017.303) |
| = | 1.541083 | / | 1.562325 |
| | = | 0.9864 |
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
| GMI | = | GrossMargin_t-1 | / | GrossMargin_t |
| = | (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) | / | (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) |
| = | (47017.303 / 47017.303) | / | (53391.6 / 53391.6) |
| = | 1 | / | 1 |
| | = | 1 |
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.
| AQI | = | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | (1 - (0 + 21.965) / 1160392.805) | / | (1 - (0 + 21.091) / 1094616.481) |
| = | 0.999981 | / | 0.999981 |
| | = | 1 |
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
| SGI | = | Sales_t | / | Sales_t-1 |
| = | Revenue_t | / | Revenue_t-1 |
| = | 53391.6 | / | 47017.303 |
| | = | 1.1356 |
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
| DEPI | = | (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) | / | (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) |
| = | (3944.024 / (3944.024 + 21.091)) | / | (4793.004 / (4793.004 + 21.965)) |
| = | 0.994681 | / | 0.995438 |
| | = | 0.9992 |
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
| SGAI | = | (SGA_t / Sales_t) | / | (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) |
| = | (25129.602 / 53391.6) | / | (23294.128 / 47017.303) |
| = | 0.470666 | / | 0.495437 |
| | = | 0.95 |
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage
| LVGI | = | ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | ((275781.08 + 0) / 1160392.805) | / | ((245267.239 + 0) / 1094616.481) |
| = | 0.237662 | / | 0.224067 |
| | = | 1.0607 |
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
| TATA | = | (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (12415.902 - 0 | - | 2017.902) | / | 1160392.805 |
| | = | 0.008961 |
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Morgan Stanley has a M-score of -2.34 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
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