Grifal SpA (MIL:GRAL) Beneish M-Score: -2.80 (As of Jul. 15, 2026)

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

MIL:GRAL Grifal SpA MIL:GRAL
57 GF Score
Price €0.60
GF Value €2.15
Valuation Possible Value Trap
! 7 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Grifal SpA Beneish M-Score?

Grifal SpA MIL:GRAL 57 Beneish M-Score is -2.80 as of Jul. 15, 2026. GuruFocus rates MIL:GRAL with a GF Score™ of 57/100 and a GF Value™ of €2.15 (Possible Value Trap). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 374 Packaging & Containers companies, Grifal SpA ranks better than 74.06% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.8 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Grifal SpA's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

MIL:GRAL' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.39   Med: -2.78   Max: -2.38
Current: -2.8

During the past 11 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Grifal SpA was -2.38. The lowest was -3.39. And the median was -2.78.


Grifal SpA Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Grifal SpA's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Grifal SpA Beneish M-Score Chart

Grifal SpA Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.41 -2.38 -3.39 -2.78 -2.80

Grifal SpA Semi-Annual Data
Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Jun18 Dec18 Jun19 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23 Jun24 Dec24 Jun25 Dec25
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -3.39 0.00 -2.78 0.00 -2.80

MIL:GRAL vs SW, PKG, IP: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Packaging & Containers subindustry, Grifal SpA's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Grifal SpA Beneish M-Score vs Packaging & Containers Industry

For the Packaging & Containers industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Grifal SpA's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Grifal SpA's Beneish M-Score falls into.


MIL:GRAL
57GF Score
Grifal SpA MIL:GRAL
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Grifal SpA Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Grifal SpA for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9426+0.528 * 1.027+0.404 * 1.0352+0.892 * 0.9356+0.115 * 0.9642
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1+4.679 * -0.043994-0.327 * 1.0966
=-2.80

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec25) TTM:Last Year (Dec24) TTM:
Total Receivables was €8.63 Mil.
Revenue was €36.53 Mil.
Gross Profit was €24.52 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €21.88 Mil.
Total Assets was €60.74 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €26.68 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €4.23 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €0.00 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €26.45 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €17.74 Mil.
Net Income was €-3.09 Mil.
Gross Profit was €0.00 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was €-0.42 Mil.
Total Receivables was €9.78 Mil.
Revenue was €39.05 Mil.
Gross Profit was €26.91 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €22.12 Mil.
Total Assets was €59.71 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €26.02 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €3.95 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €0.00 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €25.17 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €14.45 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(8.626 / 36.532) / (9.781 / 39.046)
=0.236122 / 0.250499
=0.9426

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(26.91 / 39.046) / (24.516 / 36.532)
=0.689187 / 0.671083
=1.027

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (21.878 + 26.683) / 60.735) / (1 - (22.123 + 26.022) / 59.706)
=0.200445 / 0.193632
=1.0352

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=36.532 / 39.046
=0.9356

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(3.953 / (3.953 + 26.022)) / (4.228 / (4.228 + 26.683))
=0.131877 / 0.13678
=0.9642

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(0 / 36.532) / (0 / 39.046)
=0 / 0
=1

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((17.736 + 26.453) / 60.735) / ((14.448 + 25.167) / 59.706)
=0.727571 / 0.663501
=1.0966

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(-3.09 - 0 - -0.418) / 60.735
=-0.043994

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Grifal SpA has a M-score of -2.80 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.80 mean?
Grifal SpA (MIL:GRAL) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.80 as of Jul. 15, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Grifal SpA and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Grifal SpA ranks #97 out of 374 companies in the Packaging & Containers industry, placing it in the top 25.9%.
Is Grifal SpA's Beneish M-Score too high?
Grifal SpA's current Beneish M-Score is -2.80. Based on the distribution chart, Grifal SpA ranks #97 out of 374 companies in the Packaging & Containers industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Grifal SpA has a GF Score™ of 57/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Grifal SpA's Beneish M-Score compare to SW and PKG?
According to the Packaging & Containers industry distribution chart, Grifal SpA ranks #97 out of 374 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts Grifal SpA in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Packaging & Containers company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Packaging & Containers industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Grifal SpA and its competitors. Grifal SpA's current Beneish M-Score is -2.80. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Grifal SpA stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Grifal SpA (MIL:GRAL) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is €2.15, compared to a current price of €0.60 — trading 72.1% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.80. Grifal SpA's overall GF Score™ is 57/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Grifal SpA (MIL:GRAL), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.80 as of Jul. 15, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Grifal SpA (MIL:GRAL) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Grifal SpA stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of €0.60 is trading 72.1% below its estimated GF Value™ of €2.15. GuruFocus considers Grifal SpA to be Possible Value Trap.

Key valuation signals for MIL:GRAL:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.80
  • GF Value™: €2.15 vs. price of €0.60 (72.1% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 57/100 with 7 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the MIL:GRAL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Grifal SpA Business Description

Address via XXIV Maggio, Cologno al Serio, Bergamo, ITA, 124055
Grifal SpA provides protective packaging solutions. The company offers packing for custom products, innovative packaging, packaging for e-commerce and presentation packaging.
57GF Score

Get the complete analysis for MIL:GRAL

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

€0.60
Price
€2.15
GF Value