Market Cap : 7.99 B | Enterprise Value : 7.92 B | P/E (TTM) : | P/B : 72.57 |
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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Warning Sign:
Beneish M-Score 7.75 higher than -1.78, which implies that the company might have manipulated its financial results.
During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Novavax was 48.96. The lowest was -8.70. And the median was -2.41.
* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.
* The bar in red indicates where Novavax's Beneish M-Score falls into.
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Novavax for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
M | = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * DSRI | + | 0.528 * GMI | + | 0.404 * AQI | + | 0.892 * SGI | + | 0.115 * DEPI |
= | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * 1 | + | 0.528 * 1 | + | 0.404 * 0.3873 | + | 0.892 * 12.8188 | + | 0.115 * 11.9735 | |
- | 0.172 * SGAI | + | 4.679 * TATA | - | 0.327 * LVGI | |||||||
- | 0.172 * 0.2027 | + | 4.679 * -0.3597 | - | 0.327 * 0.3187 | |||||||
= | 7.75 |
* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.
This Year (Sep20) TTM: | Last Year (Sep19) TTM: |
Accounts Receivable was $12.4 Mil. Revenue was 157.024 + 35.538 + 3.377 + 8.816 = $204.8 Mil. Gross Profit was 157.024 + 35.538 + 3.377 + 8.816 = $204.8 Mil. Total Current Assets was $671.2 Mil. Total Assets was $944.0 Mil. Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $131.8 Mil. Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $4.0 Mil. Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $92.2 Mil. Total Current Liabilities was $239.2 Mil. Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $384.8 Mil. Net Income was -197.31 + -17.521 + -25.864 + -31.83 = $-272.5 Mil. Non Operating Income was 1.092 + 2.909 + 0.436 + 0.278 = $4.7 Mil. Cash Flow from Operations was -6.497 + 115.634 + -23.11 + -23.743 = $62.3 Mil. |
Accounts Receivable was $0.0 Mil. Revenue was 2.507 + 3.357 + 3.982 + 6.127 = $16.0 Mil. Gross Profit was 2.507 + 3.357 + 3.982 + 6.127 = $16.0 Mil. Total Current Assets was $89.0 Mil. Total Assets was $164.8 Mil. Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $12.2 Mil. Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $6.7 Mil. Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $35.5 Mil. Total Current Liabilities was $21.6 Mil. Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $320.3 Mil. |
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Accounts Receivable in year t to year t-1.
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
DSRI | = | (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) | / | (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) |
= | (12.355 / 204.755) | / | (0 / 15.973) | |
= | 0.06034041 | / | 0 | |
= | 1 |
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
GMI | = | GrossMargin_t-1 | / | GrossMargin_t |
= | (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) | / | (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) | |
= | (15.973 / 15.973) | / | (204.755 / 204.755) | |
= | 1 | / | 1 | |
= | 1 |
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.
AQI | = | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
= | (1 - (671.217 + 131.834) / 944.02) | / | (1 - (89.022 + 12.244) / 164.81) | |
= | 0.1493284 | / | 0.38555913 | |
= | 0.3873 |
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
SGI | = | Sales_t | / | Sales_t-1 |
= | Revenue_t | / | Revenue_t-1 | |
= | 204.755 | / | 15.973 | |
= | 12.8188 |
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
DEPI | = | (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) | / | (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) |
= | (6.726 / (6.726 + 12.244)) | / | (4.023 / (4.023 + 131.834)) | |
= | 0.35455983 | / | 0.02961202 | |
= | 11.9735 |
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
SGAI | = | (SGA_t / Sales_t) | / | (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) |
= | (92.158 / 204.755) | / | (35.461 / 15.973) | |
= | 0.45008913 | / | 2.22005885 | |
= | 0.2027 |
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage
LVGI | = | ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
= | ((384.778 + 239.218) / 944.02) | / | ((320.255 + 21.575) / 164.81) | |
= | 0.66099871 | / | 2.07408531 | |
= | 0.3187 |
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
TATA | = | (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
= | (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t | |
= | (-272.525 - 4.715 | - | 62.284) | / | 944.02 | |
= | -0.3597 |
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Novavax has a M-score of 7.75 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
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