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Advance Auto Parts Beneish M-Score

: -2.59 (As of Today)
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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Advance Auto Parts has a M-score of -2.59 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

NYSE:AAP' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.95   Max: 5.23
Current: -2.59

-3.95
5.23

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Advance Auto Parts was 5.23. The lowest was -3.95. And the median was -2.62.


Advance Auto Parts Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

* Premium members only.

Advance Auto Parts Annual Data
Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18
Beneish M-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -0.17 -2.55 -2.43 -2.58 -2.72

Advance Auto Parts Quarterly Data
Sep14 Dec14 Apr15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Apr16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Apr17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Apr18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Apr19 Jun19
Beneish M-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.61 -2.64 -2.72 -2.60 -2.59

Competitive Comparison
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap.


Advance Auto Parts Beneish M-Score Distribution

* The bar in red indicates where Advance Auto Parts's Beneish M-Score falls into.



Advance Auto Parts Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Advance Auto Parts for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0381+0.528 * 0.9911+0.404 * 0.7576+0.892 * 1.026+0.115 * 2.6118
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0128+4.679 * -0.0381-0.327 * 1.2077
=-2.59

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

This Year (Jun19) TTM:Last Year (Jun18) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was USD 497 Mil.
Revenue was 2332.246 + 2952.036 + 2105.072 + 2274.982 = USD 9,664 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1009.438 + 1304.612 + 928.644 + 1006.927 = USD 4,250 Mil.
Total Current Assets was USD 5,962 Mil.
Total Assets was USD 11,268 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was USD 3,741 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was USD 233 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was USD 3,632 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was USD 4,372 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was USD 2,779 Mil.
Net Income was 124.82 + 142.5 + 53.442 + 115.843 = USD 437 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 4.113 + -2.238 + -1.421 + 5.755 = USD 6 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 287.619 + 204.542 + 129.525 + 237.535 = USD 859 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was USD 467 Mil.
Revenue was 2326.652 + 2873.848 + 2036.986 + 2182.233 = USD 9,420 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1011.559 + 1272.284 + 873.569 + 947.708 = USD 4,105 Mil.
Total Current Assets was USD 5,878 Mil.
Total Assets was USD 8,836 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was USD 1,339 Mil.
(DDA) was USD 242 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was USD 3,496 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was USD 3,598 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was USD 1,045 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Accounts Receivable in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(497.338 / 9664.336) / (466.957 / 9419.719)
=0.05146117 / 0.04957229
=1.0381

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(4105.12 / 9419.719) / (4249.621 / 9664.336)
=0.43580069 / 0.43972198
=0.9911

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (5962.471 + 3741.407) / 11267.946) / (1 - (5877.816 + 1338.931) / 8835.556)
=0.13880684 / 0.1832153
=0.7576

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=9664.336 / 9419.719
=1.026

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(242.304 / (242.304 + 1338.931)) / (233.197 / (233.197 + 3741.407))
=0.15323718 / 0.05867176
=2.6118

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of c in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(3632.415 / 9664.336) / (3495.617 / 9419.719)
=0.37585769 / 0.37109568
=1.0128

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((2779.301 + 4372.405) / 11267.946) / ((1045.077 + 3598.217) / 8835.556)
=0.63469473 / 0.52552369
=1.2077

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(436.605 - 6.209 - 859.221) / 11267.946
=-0.0381

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Advance Auto Parts has a M-score of -2.59 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Advance Auto Parts Beneish M-Score Headlines

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