Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (NAS:OLLI) Beneish M-Score

: -1.83 (As of Today)

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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -1.83 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

OLLI' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.36 Med: -1.92 Max: 0.58
Current: -1.83

During the past 10 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings was 0.58. The lowest was -3.36. And the median was -1.92.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Annual Data

Trend

Jan14

Jan15

Jan16

Jan17

Jan18

Jan19

Jan20

Jan21

Jan22

Jan23

Beneish M-Score

-2.75

0.58

-3.36

-1.07

-1.83

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Quarterly Data
	Apr18	Jul18	Oct18	Jan19	Apr19	Jul19	Oct19	Jan20	Apr20	Jul20	Oct20	Jan21	Apr21	Jul21	Oct21	Jan22	Apr22	Jul22	Oct22	Jan23
Beneish M-Score																-1.07	-0.19	0.35	-1.17	-1.83

Competitive Comparison

For the Discount Stores subindustry, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Annual Data Quarterly Data

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Beneish M-Score Distribution

For the Retail - Defensive industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings's Beneish M-Score falls in comparison to its industry or sector. The grey bar indicates the Beneish M-Score's extreme value range as defined by GuruFocus.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

-4.84

0.92 * DSRI

0.528 * GMI

0.404 * AQI

0.892 * SGI

0.115 * DEPI

-4.84

0.92 * 1.659

0.528 * 1.0822

0.404 * 0.9647

0.892 * 1.0422

0.115 * 0.9385

0.172 * SGAI

4.679 * TATA

0.327 * LVGI

0.172 * 1.0516

4.679 * -0.005653

0.327 * 0.9541

-1.83

This Year (Jan23) TTM:

Last Year (Jan22) TTM:

Total Receivables was $2 Mil.
Revenue was 549.789 + 418.072 + 452.482 + 406.666 = $1,827 Mil.
Gross Profit was 206.483 + 164.676 + 143.61 + 141.325 = $656 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $754 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,044 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $612 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $29 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $491 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $259 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $352 Mil.
Net Income was 53.088 + 23.082 + 14.097 + 12.523 = $103 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 113.367 + -2.976 + 35.471 + -31.516 = $114 Mil.

Total Receivables was $1 Mil.
Revenue was 501.135 + 383.487 + 415.881 + 452.492 = $1,753 Mil.
Gross Profit was 183.041 + 152.56 + 163.035 + 182.61 = $681 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $727 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,972 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $568 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $25 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $448 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $263 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $355 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI	=	(Receivables_t / Revenue_t)	/	(Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
	=	(2.374 / 1827.009)	/	(1.372 / 1752.995)
	=	0.001299	/	0.000783
	=	1.659

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI	=	GrossMargin_t-1	/	GrossMargin_t
	=	(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)	/	(GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
	=	(681.246 / 1752.995)	/	(656.094 / 1827.009)
	=	0.388618	/	0.359108
	=	1.0822

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI	=	(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t)	/	(1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
	=	(1 - (754.296 + 612.273) / 2044.096)	/	(1 - (726.828 + 567.732) / 1972.172)
	=	0.331456	/	0.343587
	=	0.9647

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI	=	Sales_t	/	Sales_t-1
	=	Revenue_t	/	Revenue_t-1
	=	1827.009	/	1752.995
	=	1.0422

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI	=	(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1))	/	(Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
	=	(24.894 / (24.894 + 567.732))	/	(28.689 / (28.689 + 612.273))
	=	0.042006	/	0.044759
	=	0.9385

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI	=	(SGA_t / Sales_t)	/	(SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
	=	(490.569 / 1827.009)	/	(447.615 / 1752.995)
	=	0.268509	/	0.255343
	=	1.0516

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI	=	((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t)	/	((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
	=	((352.109 + 259.285) / 2044.096)	/	((355.012 + 263.268) / 1972.172)
	=	0.299102	/	0.313502
	=	0.9541

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA	=	(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t	-	CashFlowsfromOperations_t)	/	TotalAssets_t
	=	(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t	-	CashFlowsfromOperations_t)	/	TotalAssets_t
	=	(102.79 - 0	-	114.346)	/	2044.096
	=	-0.005653

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings has a M-score of -1.83 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (NAS:OLLI) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (NAS:OLLI) » Definitions » Beneish M-Score

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

OL6:Germany

Address

6295 Allentown Boulevard, Suite 1, Harrisburg, PA, USA, 17112

Website

https://www.ollies.us

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc is a retailer of brand name merchandise at drastically reduced prices. It offers customers a selection of brand name products, including housewares, food, books and stationery, bed and bath, floor coverings, toys, and hardware. It operates stores across the Eastern half of the United States. Its differentiated go-to-market strategy is characterized by a unique, fun and engaging treasure hunt shopping experience, compelling customer value proposition and witty, humorous in-store signage and advertising campaigns. These attributes have driven rapid growth and strong and consistent store performance for the company.

Executives

Abid Rizvi	director	C/O OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS, INC, 6295 ALLENTOWN BOULEVARD, SUITE 1, HARRISBURG PA 17112
Robert F Helm	officer: See Remarks	500 PLAZA DRIVE, THE CHILDREN'S PLACE, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
James J Comitale	officer: SVP, General Counsel	30 HUNTER LANE, CAMP HILL PA 17011
Van Der Valk Eric	officer: EVP, COO	C/O OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS, INC, 6295 ALLENTOWN BOULEVARD, SUITE 1, HARRISBURG PA 17112
Larry Kraus	officer: VP, CIO	C/O OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS, INC, 6295 ALLENTOWN BOULEVARD, SUITE 1, HARRISBURG PA 17112
Scott Osborne	officer: VP, Store Operations	C/O OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS, INC, 6295 ALLENTOWN BOULEVARD, SUITE 1, HARRISBURG PA 17112
Ray Daugherty	officer: SVP, Supply Chain	C/O OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS, INC, 6295 ALLENTOWN BOULEVARD, SUITE 1, HARRISBURG PA 17112
Alissa M Ahlman	director	AT HOME GROUP INC., 1600 EAST PLANO PARKWAY, PLANO TX 75074
Michael L Bangs	10 percent owner	429 SOUTH 18TH STREET, CAMP HILL PA 17011
Stephen W White	director	500 VOLVO PARKWAY, CHESAPEAKE VA 23320
Ccmp Capital Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	1 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10020
Howard Freedman	officer: VP, Merchandising	1262 BROCKIE DRIVE, YORK PA 17403
Mark L Butler	officer: President, CEO	1701 NEWVILLE ROAD, CARLISLE PA 17055
Stanley Fleishman	director
Kevin Mclain	officer: SVP, Merchandising	1405 SUMMIT WAY, MECHNICSBURG PA 17050