Toly Bread Co (SHSE:603866) Beneish M-Score: -2.86 (As of Jul. 25, 2026)

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

SHSE:603866 Toly Bread Co Ltd SHSE:603866
67 GF Score
Price ¥3.96
GF Value ¥5.35
Valuation Modestly Undervalued
! 6 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Toly Bread Co Beneish M-Score?

Toly Bread Co SHSE:603866 -1.74% 67 Beneish M-Score is -2.86 as of Jul. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates SHSE:603866 with a GF Score™ of 67/100 and a GF Value™ of ¥5.35 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review. Among 294 Retail - Defensive companies, Toly Bread Co ranks better than 72.45% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.86 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Toly Bread Co's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

SHSE:603866' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.19   Med: -2.61   Max: -2.23
Current: -2.86

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Toly Bread Co was -2.23. The lowest was -3.19. And the median was -2.61.


Toly Bread Co Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Toly Bread Co's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Toly Bread Co Beneish M-Score Chart

Toly Bread Co Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.46 -2.68 -2.63 -3.13 -2.97

Toly Bread Co Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -3.16 -3.16 -3.19 -2.97 -2.86

SHSE:603866 vs KR, SFM: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Grocery Stores subindustry, Toly Bread Co's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Toly Bread Co Beneish M-Score vs Retail - Defensive Industry

For the Retail - Defensive industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Toly Bread Co's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Toly Bread Co's Beneish M-Score falls into.


SHSE:603866
67GF Score
Toly Bread Co Ltd SHSE:603866
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Toly Bread Co Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Toly Bread Co for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0001+0.528 * 1.0385+0.404 * 1.0955+0.892 * 0.9199+0.115 * 1
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.4952+4.679 * -0.060566-0.327 * 0.9898
=-2.86

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was ¥359 Mil.
Revenue was 1169.467 + 1399.444 + 1437.284 + 1410.254 = ¥5,416 Mil.
Gross Profit was 245.042 + 294.374 + 332.748 + 336.123 = ¥1,208 Mil.
Total Current Assets was ¥997 Mil.
Total Assets was ¥7,303 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was ¥5,276 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was ¥0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was ¥306 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was ¥1,483 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was ¥536 Mil.
Net Income was 51.838 + -14.223 + 94.249 + 119.791 = ¥252 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = ¥0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 124.349 + 109.104 + 221.24 + 239.283 = ¥694 Mil.
Total Receivables was ¥390 Mil.
Revenue was 1201.171 + 1439.66 + 1626.61 + 1620.886 = ¥5,888 Mil.
Gross Profit was 263.955 + 317.007 + 376.956 + 406.254 = ¥1,364 Mil.
Total Current Assets was ¥1,186 Mil.
Total Assets was ¥7,254 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was ¥5,134 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was ¥0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was ¥222 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was ¥1,335 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was ¥691 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(358.788 / 5416.449) / (390.011 / 5888.327)
=0.06624 / 0.066235
=1.0001

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1364.172 / 5888.327) / (1208.287 / 5416.449)
=0.231674 / 0.223077
=1.0385

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (996.923 + 5276.304) / 7303.105) / (1 - (1186.467 + 5133.776) / 7253.974)
=0.141019 / 0.12872
=1.0955

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=5416.449 / 5888.327
=0.9199

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(0 / (0 + 5133.776)) / (0 / (0 + 5276.304))
=0 / 0
=1

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(305.805 / 5416.449) / (222.346 / 5888.327)
=0.056459 / 0.03776
=1.4952

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((535.784 + 1483.219) / 7303.105) / ((690.861 + 1335.24) / 7253.974)
=0.276458 / 0.279309
=0.9898

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(251.655 - 0 - 693.976) / 7303.105
=-0.060566

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Toly Bread Co has a M-score of -2.86 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.86 mean?
Toly Bread Co (SHSE:603866) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.86 as of Jul. 25, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Toly Bread Co and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Toly Bread Co ranks #81 out of 294 companies in the Retail - Defensive industry, placing it in the top 27.6%.
Is Toly Bread Co's Beneish M-Score too high?
Toly Bread Co's current Beneish M-Score is -2.86. Based on the distribution chart, Toly Bread Co ranks #81 out of 294 companies in the Retail - Defensive industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Toly Bread Co has a GF Score™ of 67/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Toly Bread Co's Beneish M-Score compare to KR and SFM?
According to the Retail - Defensive industry distribution chart, Toly Bread Co ranks #81 out of 294 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts Toly Bread Co in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Retail - Defensive company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Retail - Defensive industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Toly Bread Co and its competitors. Toly Bread Co's current Beneish M-Score is -2.86. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Toly Bread Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Toly Bread Co (SHSE:603866) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is ¥5.35, compared to a current price of ¥3.96 — trading 26% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.86. Toly Bread Co's overall GF Score™ is 67/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Toly Bread Co (SHSE:603866), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.86 as of Jul. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Toly Bread Co (SHSE:603866) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Toly Bread Co stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of ¥3.96 is trading 26% below its estimated GF Value™ of ¥5.35. GuruFocus considers Toly Bread Co to be Modestly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for SHSE:603866:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.86
  • GF Value™: ¥5.35 vs. price of ¥3.96 (26% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 67/100 with 6 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the SHSE:603866 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Toly Bread Co Business Description

Address No. 176, Clove Street, Liaoning Province, Sujiatun District, Shenyang, CHN
Toly Bread Co Ltd is a China-based company engaged in the production, processing, and sale of baked goods such as bread, cakes, moon cakes, and dumplings. Its products portfolio includes peach and plum, peach bread and peach moon cake.
67GF Score

Get the complete analysis for SHSE:603866

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

¥3.96
Price
¥5.35
GF Value