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AvalonBay Communities (STU:WV8) Beneish M-Score : -2.63 (As of Dec. 15, 2024)


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What is AvalonBay Communities Beneish M-Score?

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.63 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for AvalonBay Communities's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

STU:WV8' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.71   Med: -2.61   Max: -2.46
Current: -2.63

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of AvalonBay Communities was -2.46. The lowest was -2.71. And the median was -2.61.


AvalonBay Communities Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for AvalonBay Communities's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

AvalonBay Communities Beneish M-Score Chart

AvalonBay Communities Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.61 -2.66 -2.70 -2.57 -2.60

AvalonBay Communities Quarterly Data
Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.62 -2.60 -2.61 -2.64 -2.63

Competitive Comparison of AvalonBay Communities's Beneish M-Score

For the REIT - Residential subindustry, AvalonBay Communities's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


AvalonBay Communities's Beneish M-Score Distribution in the REITs Industry

For the REITs industry and Real Estate sector, AvalonBay Communities's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where AvalonBay Communities's Beneish M-Score falls into.



AvalonBay Communities Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of AvalonBay Communities for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1+0.528 * 1.013+0.404 * 0.9997+0.892 * 1.0331+0.115 * 1.0136
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9337+4.679 * -0.04432-0.327 * 1.0264
=-2.65

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Sep24) TTM:Last Year (Sep23) TTM:
Total Receivables was €0 Mil.
Revenue was 661.611 + 674.492 + 655.83 + 646.214 = €2,638 Mil.
Gross Profit was 413.421 + 432.347 + 420.59 + 416.617 = €1,683 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €714 Mil.
Total Assets was €19,199 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €141 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €772 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €71 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €729 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €7,704 Mil.
Net Income was 335.64 + 235.905 + 159.573 + 221.886 = €953 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 182.393 + 67.02 + 3.439 + 62.663 = €316 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 438.038 + 353.012 + 379.873 + 317.453 = €1,488 Mil.
Total Receivables was €0 Mil.
Revenue was 653.684 + 637.664 + 630.177 + 632.169 = €2,554 Mil.
Gross Profit was 416.07 + 411.681 + 406.646 + 415.863 = €1,650 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €731 Mil.
Total Assets was €19,399 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €127 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €760 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €74 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €776 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €7,525 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(0 / 2638.147) / (0 / 2553.694)
=0 / 0
=1

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1650.26 / 2553.694) / (1682.975 / 2638.147)
=0.646225 / 0.637938
=1.013

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (714.022 + 141.452) / 19198.878) / (1 - (730.959 + 127.225) / 19398.559)
=0.955441 / 0.95576
=0.9997

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=2638.147 / 2553.694
=1.0331

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(760.281 / (760.281 + 127.225)) / (771.846 / (771.846 + 141.452))
=0.856649 / 0.84512
=1.0136

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(71.499 / 2638.147) / (74.126 / 2553.694)
=0.027102 / 0.029027
=0.9337

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((7704.147 + 728.546) / 19198.878) / ((7525.474 + 776.02) / 19398.559)
=0.439228 / 0.427944
=1.0264

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(953.004 - 315.515 - 1488.376) / 19198.878
=-0.04432

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

AvalonBay Communities has a M-score of -2.65 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.


AvalonBay Communities Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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AvalonBay Communities Business Description

Address
4040 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 1000, Arlington, VA, USA, 22203
AvalonBay Communities owns a portfolio of 281 apartment communities with over 87,000 units and is developing 18 additional properties with over 6,200 units. The company focuses on owning large, high-quality properties in major metropolitan areas of New England, New York/New Jersey, Washington D.C., California, and the Pacific Northwest.

AvalonBay Communities Headlines

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