First Baking Co (TSE:2215) Beneish M-Score: -2.31 (As of Jul. 12, 2026)


TSE:2215 First Baking Co Ltd TSE:2215
63 GF Score
Price 円600.00
GF Value 円660.11
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 2 Warning Signs
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What is First Baking Co Beneish M-Score?

First Baking Co TSE:2215 63 Beneish M-Score is -2.31 as of Jul. 12, 2026. GuruFocus rates TSE:2215 with a GF Score™ of 63/100 and a GF Value™ of 円660.11 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,851 Consumer Packaged Goods companies, First Baking Co ranks worse than 65.48% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.31 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for First Baking Co's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

TSE:2215' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.24   Med: -2.63   Max: -1.49
Current: -2.31

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of First Baking Co was -1.49. The lowest was -3.24. And the median was -2.63.


First Baking Co Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for First Baking Co's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

First Baking Co Beneish M-Score Chart

First Baking Co Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.58 -3.24 -2.59 -1.49 -2.31

First Baking Co Quarterly Data
Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2.31 0.00

TSE:2215 vs KHC, GIS: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Packaged Foods subindustry, First Baking Co's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


First Baking Co Beneish M-Score vs Consumer Packaged Goods Industry

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, First Baking Co's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where First Baking Co's Beneish M-Score falls into.


TSE:2215
63GF Score
First Baking Co Ltd TSE:2215
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

First Baking Co Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of First Baking Co for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0737+0.528 * 1.06+0.404 * 0.7381+0.892 * 1.0653+0.115 * 1.0642
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9786+4.679 * 0.016582-0.327 * 0.9212
=-2.31

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec25) TTM:Last Year (Dec24) TTM:
Total Receivables was 円4,066 Mil.
Revenue was 円28,957 Mil.
Gross Profit was 円7,493 Mil.
Total Current Assets was 円7,856 Mil.
Total Assets was 円16,343 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was 円8,247 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was 円548 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was 円3,613 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was 円4,250 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was 円0 Mil.
Net Income was 円320 Mil.
Gross Profit was 円0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 円49 Mil.
Total Receivables was 円3,555 Mil.
Revenue was 円27,183 Mil.
Gross Profit was 円7,456 Mil.
Total Current Assets was 円8,131 Mil.
Total Assets was 円15,781 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was 円7,336 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was 円521 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was 円3,466 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was 円4,455 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was 円0 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(4066 / 28957) / (3555 / 27183)
=0.140415 / 0.13078
=1.0737

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(7456 / 27183) / (7493 / 28957)
=0.274289 / 0.258763
=1.06

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (7856 + 8247) / 16343) / (1 - (8131 + 7336) / 15781)
=0.014685 / 0.019897
=0.7381

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=28957 / 27183
=1.0653

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(521 / (521 + 7336)) / (548 / (548 + 8247))
=0.06631 / 0.062308
=1.0642

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(3613 / 28957) / (3466 / 27183)
=0.124771 / 0.127506
=0.9786

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((0 + 4250) / 16343) / ((0 + 4455) / 15781)
=0.26005 / 0.282302
=0.9212

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(320 - 0 - 49) / 16343
=0.016582

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

First Baking Co has a M-score of -2.31 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.31 mean?
First Baking Co (TSE:2215) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.31 as of Jul. 12, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on First Baking Co and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, First Baking Co ranks #1212 out of 1851 companies in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry, placing it in the top 65.5%.
Is First Baking Co's Beneish M-Score too high?
First Baking Co's current Beneish M-Score is -2.31. Based on the distribution chart, First Baking Co ranks #1212 out of 1851 companies in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, First Baking Co has a GF Score™ of 63/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does First Baking Co's Beneish M-Score compare to KHC and GIS?
According to the Consumer Packaged Goods industry distribution chart, First Baking Co ranks #1212 out of 1851 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places First Baking Co in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Consumer Packaged Goods company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Consumer Packaged Goods industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on First Baking Co and its competitors. First Baking Co's current Beneish M-Score is -2.31. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is First Baking Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, First Baking Co (TSE:2215) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is 円660.11, compared to a current price of 円600.00 — trading 9.1% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.31. First Baking Co's overall GF Score™ is 63/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For First Baking Co (TSE:2215), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.31 as of Jul. 12, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is First Baking Co (TSE:2215) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, First Baking Co stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of 円600.00 is trading 9.1% below its estimated GF Value™ of 円660.11. GuruFocus considers First Baking Co to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for TSE:2215:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.31
  • GF Value™: 円660.11 vs. price of 円600.00 (9.1% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 63/100 with 2 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the TSE:2215 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


First Baking Co Business Description

Address 3-6-1 Kogawahigashi town, Kodaira, JPN
First Baking Co Ltd is engaged in manufacture and selling of packaged foods and bakery foods. The products of the company include sip wrapping series, mini croissant series, apple ring series, and large Danish series.
63GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TSE:2215

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

円600.00
Price
円660.11
GF Value