Nippon Paper Industries Co (TSE:3863) Beneish M-Score: -2.66 (As of Jun. 26, 2026)


TSE:3863 Nippon Paper Industries Co Ltd TSE:3863
60 GF Score
Price 円1,246.00
GF Value 円1,145.23
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 5 Warning Signs
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What is Nippon Paper Industries Co Beneish M-Score?

Nippon Paper Industries Co TSE:3863 +3.57% 60 Beneish M-Score is -2.66 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates TSE:3863 with a GF Score™ of 60/100 and a GF Value™ of 円1,145.23 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 273 Forest Products companies, Nippon Paper Industries Co ranks better than 59.71% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.66 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Nippon Paper Industries Co's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

TSE:3863' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.85   Med: -2.68   Max: -2.47
Current: -2.66

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Nippon Paper Industries Co was -2.47. The lowest was -2.85. And the median was -2.68.


Nippon Paper Industries Co Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Nippon Paper Industries Co's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Nippon Paper Industries Co Beneish M-Score Chart

Nippon Paper Industries Co Annual Data
Trend Mar17 Mar18 Mar19 Mar20 Mar21 Mar22 Mar23 Mar24 Mar25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.55 -2.85 -2.59 -2.81 -2.66

Nippon Paper Industries Co Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2.66

Nippon Paper Industries Co Beneish M-Score Competitor Comparison

For the Paper & Paper Products subindustry, Nippon Paper Industries Co's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Nippon Paper Industries Co Beneish M-Score vs Forest Products Industry

For the Forest Products industry and Basic Materials sector, Nippon Paper Industries Co's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Nippon Paper Industries Co's Beneish M-Score falls into.


TSE:3863
60GF Score
Nippon Paper Industries Co Ltd TSE:3863
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Nippon Paper Industries Co Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Nippon Paper Industries Co for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9966+0.528 * 0.9683+0.404 * 0.9919+0.892 * 1.0086+0.115 * 1.0561
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0073+4.679 * -0.036378-0.327 * 0.9835
=-2.66

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was 円181,228 Mil.
Revenue was 円1,192,606 Mil.
Gross Profit was 円199,012 Mil.
Total Current Assets was 円665,069 Mil.
Total Assets was 円1,738,479 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was 円788,917 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was 円63,213 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was 円95,212 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was 円462,541 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was 円654,517 Mil.
Net Income was 円11,743 Mil.
Gross Profit was 円0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 円74,986 Mil.
Total Receivables was 円180,296 Mil.
Revenue was 円1,182,431 Mil.
Gross Profit was 円191,062 Mil.
Total Current Assets was 円638,305 Mil.
Total Assets was 円1,703,308 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was 円783,982 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was 円66,642 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was 円93,714 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was 円479,192 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was 円633,592 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(181228 / 1192606) / (180296 / 1182431)
=0.15196 / 0.152479
=0.9966

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(191062 / 1182431) / (199012 / 1192606)
=0.161584 / 0.166872
=0.9683

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (665069 + 788917) / 1738479) / (1 - (638305 + 783982) / 1703308)
=0.163645 / 0.164985
=0.9919

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=1192606 / 1182431
=1.0086

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(66642 / (66642 + 783982)) / (63213 / (63213 + 788917))
=0.078345 / 0.074182
=1.0561

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(95212 / 1192606) / (93714 / 1182431)
=0.079835 / 0.079255
=1.0073

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((654517 + 462541) / 1738479) / ((633592 + 479192) / 1703308)
=0.642549 / 0.653308
=0.9835

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(11743 - 0 - 74986) / 1738479
=-0.036378

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Nippon Paper Industries Co has a M-score of -2.66 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.66 mean?
Nippon Paper Industries Co (TSE:3863) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.66 as of Jun. 26, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Nippon Paper Industries Co and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Nippon Paper Industries Co ranks #110 out of 273 companies in the Forest Products industry, placing it in the top 40.3%.
Is Nippon Paper Industries Co's Beneish M-Score too high?
Nippon Paper Industries Co's current Beneish M-Score is -2.66. Based on the distribution chart, Nippon Paper Industries Co ranks #110 out of 273 companies in the Forest Products industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Nippon Paper Industries Co has a GF Score™ of 60/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Nippon Paper Industries Co's Beneish M-Score compare to competitors?
According to the Forest Products industry distribution chart, Nippon Paper Industries Co ranks #110 out of 273 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts Nippon Paper Industries Co in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Forest Products company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Forest Products industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Nippon Paper Industries Co and its competitors. Nippon Paper Industries Co's current Beneish M-Score is -2.66. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Nippon Paper Industries Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Nippon Paper Industries Co (TSE:3863) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is 円1,145.23, compared to a current price of 円1,246.00 — trading 8.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.66. Nippon Paper Industries Co's overall GF Score™ is 60/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Nippon Paper Industries Co (TSE:3863), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.66 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Nippon Paper Industries Co (TSE:3863) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Nippon Paper Industries Co stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of 円1,246.00 is trading 8.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of 円1,145.23. GuruFocus considers Nippon Paper Industries Co to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for TSE:3863:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.66
  • GF Value™: 円1,145.23 vs. price of 円1,246.00 (8.8% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 60/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the TSE:3863 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Nippon Paper Industries Co Business Description

Other Exchanges 9NI:Germany
Address 4-6, Kanda-Surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, JPN, 101-0062
Nippon Paper Industries Co Ltd produces and sells a variety of paper products. The company's paper products include newsprint, printing, sanitary, and packaging paper, as well as container board and boxes. The firm also sells construction materials, and generates electric power. Nippon Paper organizes itself into four segments based on product type: pulp and paper; paper related; wood products and construction related; and other. The pulp and paper segment generates the majority of revenue. The majority of sales are made in Japan.
60GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TSE:3863

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

円1,246.00
Price
円1,145.23
GF Value