Zurich Insurance Group AG Beneish M-Score Calculation
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Zurich Insurance Group AG for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
| M | = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * DSRI | + | 0.528 * GMI | + | 0.404 * AQI | + | 0.892 * SGI | + | 0.115 * DEPI |
| = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * 0.6302 | + | 0.528 * 1 | + | 0.404 * 0.751 | + | 0.892 * 1.7562 | + | 0.115 * 0.8763 |
| - | 0.172 * SGAI | + | 4.679 * TATA | - | 0.327 * LVGI |
| - | 0.172 * 0 | + | 4.679 * -0.008592 | - | 0.327 * 0.9339 |
| = | -2.11 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
| This Year (Dec23) TTM: | Last Year (Dec22) TTM: |
Total Receivables was CHF8,986 Mil.
Revenue was CHF60,504 Mil.
Gross Profit was CHF60,504 Mil.
Total Current Assets was CHF95,678 Mil.
Total Assets was CHF312,523 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was CHF1,809 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was CHF737 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was CHF0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was CHF2,142 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was CHF12,933 Mil.
Net Income was CHF3,763 Mil.
Gross Profit was CHF96 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was CHF6,352 Mil.
|
Total Receivables was CHF8,120 Mil.
Revenue was CHF34,452 Mil.
Gross Profit was CHF34,452 Mil.
Total Current Assets was CHF24,097 Mil.
Total Assets was CHF312,470 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was CHF2,073 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was CHF704 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was CHF8,072 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was CHF1,749 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was CHF14,391 Mil.
|
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
| DSRI | = | (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) | / | (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) |
| = | (8986.137 / 60504.002) | / | (8119.826 / 34451.5) |
| = | 0.148521 | / | 0.235689 |
| | = | 0.6302 |
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
| GMI | = | GrossMargin_t-1 | / | GrossMargin_t |
| = | (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) | / | (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) |
| = | (34451.5 / 34451.5) | / | (60504.002 / 60504.002) |
| = | 1 | / | 1 |
| | = | 1 |
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.
| AQI | = | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | (1 - (95678.013 + 1809.162) / 312523.154) | / | (1 - (24096.766 + 2072.81) / 312469.819) |
| = | 0.688064 | / | 0.916249 |
| | = | 0.751 |
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
| SGI | = | Sales_t | / | Sales_t-1 |
| = | Revenue_t | / | Revenue_t-1 |
| = | 60504.002 | / | 34451.5 |
| | = | 1.7562 |
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
| DEPI | = | (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) | / | (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) |
| = | (704.29 / (704.29 + 2072.81)) | / | (736.81 / (736.81 + 1809.162)) |
| = | 0.253606 | / | 0.289402 |
| | = | 0.8763 |
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
| SGAI | = | (SGA_t / Sales_t) | / | (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) |
| = | (0 / 60504.002) | / | (8072.314 / 34451.5) |
| = | 0 | / | 0.23431 |
| | = | 0 |
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage
| LVGI | = | ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | ((12933.084 + 2142.11) / 312523.154) | / | ((14391.357 + 1748.613) / 312469.819) |
| = | 0.048237 | / | 0.051653 |
| | = | 0.9339 |
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
| TATA | = | (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (3762.745 - 95.993 | - | 6351.956) | / | 312523.154 |
| | = | -0.008592 |
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Zurich Insurance Group AG has a M-score of -2.11 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
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