AAN (The Aarons Co) Predictability Rank

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What is The Aarons Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Aarons Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Aarons Co Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » The Aarons Co Inc (NYSE:AAN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

400 Galleria Parkway SE, Suite 300, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30339-3182

Website

https://www.aarons.com

The Aarons Co Inc is a specialty retailer that has developed a lease-to-own model. It serves customers through the sale and lease ownership of furniture, consumer electronics, computers, home appliances, and other accessories with the highest quality products. Aaron's services are available through multiple channels to approximately 40-50 % of the U.S. population. The Company conducts its operations through two primary operating business segments: Aaron's Business and BrandsMart.

Executives

Rachel G George	officer: EVP, Gen Counsel/Corp Sec	400 GALLERIA PKWY SE, SUITE 300, ATLANTA GA 30339
Stephen W Olsen	officer: President	400 GALLERIA PARKWAY SE, SUITE 300, ATLANTA GA 30339
Douglas A Lindsay	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	309 E. PACES FERRY ROAD, ATLANTA GA 30305
Wangdali Bacdayan	director	400 GALLERIA PARKWAY SE, SUITE 300, ATLANTA GA 30339
Douglass L Noe	officer: VP, Corporate Controller	400 GALLERIA PARKWAY SE, SUITE 300, ATLANTA GA 30339
Kristine Kay Malkoski	director	6655 PEACHTREE DUNWOODY ROAD, ATLANTA GA 30328
Russell Falkenstein	officer: EVP, COO, Lease-to-Own	400 GALLERIA PARKWAY SE, SUITE 300, ATLANTA GA 30339
John W Robinson	director	309 E PACES FERRY RD, SUITE 1100, ATLANTA GA 30505
Harris Hubert L. Jr.	director	309 E. PACES FERRY ROAD, ATLANTA GA 30305
Marvonia P Moore	director	400 GALLERIA PARKWAY SE, SUITE 300, ATLANTA GA 30339
Kelly Hefner Barrett	director	4630 WYNMEADE PARK, MARIETTA GA 30067
Timothy A Johnson	director
Laura N Bailey	director	400 GALLERIA PARKWAY SE, SUITE 300, ATLANTA GA 30339
Sinclair Robert P Jr	officer: Corporate Controller and CAO	309 E. PACES FERRY RD N.E., ATLANTA GA 30305-2377
Aaron's Holdings Company, Inc.	10 percent owner	256 W. DATA DRIVE, DRAPER UT 84020