ACLX (Arcellx) Predictability Rank

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What is Arcellx Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Arcellx Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Arcellx Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Arcellx Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Arcellx Inc (NAS:ACLX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

800 Bridge Parkway, Suite A, Redwood, CA, USA, 94065

Website

https://www.arcellx.com

Arcellx Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company reimagining cell therapy through the development of immunotherapies for patients with cancer and other incurable diseases.

Executives

Kavita Patel	director	C/O TESARO, INC., 1000 WINTER STREET, SUITE 3300, WALTHAM MA 02451
Michelle Gilson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	25 WEST WATKINS MILL ROAD, SUITE A, GAITHERSBURG MD 20878
Christopher Heery	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O PRECISION BIOSCIENCES, INC., 302 E. PETTIGREW STREET, SUITE A-100, DURHAM NC 27701
Olivia C Ware	director	11726 SAN VICENTE BLVD, SUITE 650, LOS ANGELES CA 90049
Rami Elghandour	director, officer: See Remarks	15 BARCELONA CIR, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Jill Carroll	director	C/O APPLIED GENETIC TECHNOLOGIES CORP., 11801 RESEARCH DRIVE, SUITE D, ALACHUA FL 32615
Sr One Capital Fund I Aggregator Lp	10 percent owner	C/O DESIGN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 6005 HIDDEN VALLEY ROAD, SUITE 110, CARLSBAD CA 92011
Scott D Sandell	10 percent owner
Forest Baskett	10 percent owner
Mohamad Makhzoumi	10 percent owner	2855 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Florence Anthony A. Jr.	10 percent owner	5425 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 800, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
New Enterprise Associates 15, L.p.	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
Sr One Capital Management, Llc	10 percent owner	985 OLD EAGLE SCHOOL ROAD, SUITE 511, WAYNE PA 19087
Sr One Co-invest Ii Manager, Llc	10 percent owner	985 OLD EAGLE SCHOOL ROAD, SUITE 511, WAYNE PA 19087
Novo Holdings A/s	10 percent owner	TUBORG HAVNEVEJ 19, HELLERUP G7 2900