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AILIH.PFD (Ameren Illinois Co) Predictability Rank


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What is Ameren Illinois Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ameren Illinois Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Ameren Illinois Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Ameren Illinois Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Ameren Illinois Co Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Ameren Illinois Co (OTCPK:AILIH.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
RSERF EUSP BLXX SUME WNDW FKRNF CRIUF AZRE SPKE KEN FPHHF TRPWF EDN CPXWF GCPEF EE ABY MERVF PNM NYLD.A
Traded in Other Exchanges
AILLP.PFD:USA AILLN.PFD:USA AILLI.PFD:USA AILIP.PFD:USA AILIO.PFD:USA AILIN.PFD:USA AILIM.PFD:USA
Address
10 Richard Mark Way, Collinsville, IL, USA, 62234
Website
https://www.ameren.com
Ameren Illinois Co an Illinois corporation is a subsidiary of Ameren Corporation. It operates a rate-regulated electric and natural gas transmission and distribution business in Illinois. Ameren Illinois has three segments: Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution, Ameren Illinois Natural Gas, and Ameren Illinois Transmission. Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution consists of the electric distribution business of Ameren Illinois. Ameren Illinois Natural Gas consists of the natural gas business of Ameren Illinois. Ameren Transmission consists of the aggregated electric transmission businesses of Ameren Illinois and ATXI. The company makes majority of its revenue from Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution segment.
Executives
Chonda J Nwamu officer: SVP & Deputy General Counsel 1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE, P.O. BOX 66149, ST. LOUIS MO 63166-6149
Bruce A Steinke officer: SVP, Finance & CAO 1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE, P.O. BOX 66149, ST. LOUIS MO 63166
Richard J Mark officer: President and CEO 1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE MC-1310, ST. LOUIS MO 63103
Michael L Moehn officer: Sr VP of Subsidiary 1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE MC-1310, ST. LOUIS MO 63103
Gregory L Nelson officer: Sr. VP & General Counsel 1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE MC-1310, ST. LOUIS MO 63103
Scott A Cisel other: Chmn., Pres. & CEO 1901 CHOUTEAU AVE, MC 1370, ST LOUIS MO 63103
William J Prebil officer: Vice President 1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE, P. O. BOX 66149, MC-1370, ST. LOUIS MO 63166-6149
Dennis W Weisenborn officer: Vice President 1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE, MC-1370, ST. LOUIS MO 63103
Harvey Saligman director
Douglas R Oberhelman director 100 NE ADAMS STREET, PEORIA IL 61629
Richard A Liddy director
Richard Anthony Lumpkin director 121 SOUTH 17TH STREET, MATTOON IL 61938
Miller Paul L Jr director
Jimmy L Davis officer: Vice President 1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE MC-1370, ST. LOUIS MO 63103
Martin J Lyons officer: Vice President and Controller 1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE MC-1310, ST. LOUIS MO 63103

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