What is A-Mark Precious Metals Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
A-Mark Precious Metals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
A-Mark Precious Metals (A-Mark Precious Metals) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2121 Rosecrans Avenue, Suite 6300, El Segundo, CA, USA, 90245
A-Mark Precious Metals Inc is a precious metal trading company. It is principally engaged in the wholesale of gold, silver, platinum and palladium bullion and related products in the form of bars, wafers, coins, and grains. The company's operating segment includes Wholesale Trading and Ancillary Services; Secured Lending and Direct Sales. It generates maximum revenue from the Wholesale Trading and Ancillary Services segment. The Wholesale Trading and Ancillary Services segment comprises business units such as Industrial, Coin and Bar, Trading and Finance, Storage, Logistics, and Mint. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States.
Executives
| Michael R. Wittmeyer |
director |
2121 ROSECRANS AVENUE, SUITE 6300, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245 |
| Brian Aquilino |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
2121 ROSECRANS AVENUE, SUITE 6300, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245 |
| Beverley Lepine |
director |
429 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 230, SANTA MONICA CA 90401 |
| Carol Meltzer |
officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary |
775 PASSAIC AVE, WEST CALDWELL NJ 07006 |
| Gregory N Roberts |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
2625 ST ANDREWS, TUSTIN CA 92660 |
| Thor Gjerdrum |
officer: President |
5 FRANCIS J. CLARKE CIRCLE, BETHEL CT 06801 |
| Jeffrey D Benjamin |
director, 10 percent owner |
9 WEST 57TH STREET, 43TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Jess M Ravich |
director |
11766 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 870, LOS ANGELES CA 90025 |
| Kendall Saville |
director |
2121 ROSECRANS AVENUE, SUITE 6300, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245 |
| Moorhead John |
director |
5 FRANCIS J. CLARKE CIRCLE, BETHEL CT 06801 |
| William A Richardson |
10 percent owner |
2880 LAS VEGAS BLVD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109 |
| Kathleen Taylor-simpson |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
2121 ROSECRANS AVENUE, SUITE 6300, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245 |
| A-mark Precious Metals, Inc. |
director |
2121 ROSECRANS AVENUE, SUITE 6300, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245 |
| Monique Sanchez |
director |
2121 ROSECRANS AVENUE, SUITE 6300, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245 |
| Ellis Landau |
director |
CO PINNACLE ENTERTAINMENT INC, 8918 SPANISH RIDGE AVENUE, LAS VEGAS NV 89148 |
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