What is Arch Resources Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Arch Resources Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Arch Resources Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1 CityPlace Drive, Suite 300, Saint Louis, MO, USA, 63141
Arch Resources Inc is a producer of metallurgical and coking coal. The company sells its coal to power plants, steel mills, and industrial facilities. Its operating segment includes Metallurgical (MET) and Thermal. It generates maximum revenue from the Metallurgical (MET) segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from Asia.
Executives
| Deck Slone |
officer: Sr. VP - Strategy & Public Pol |
ONE CITYPLACE DRIVE, ST. LOUIS MO 63141 |
| Matthew C. Giljum |
officer: Sr. VP and CFO |
C/O ARCH COAL, INC., ONE CITYPLACE DRIVE, SUITE 300, ST. LOUIS MO 63141 |
| Pamela R Butcher |
director |
P. O. BOX 116, ELK RAPIDS MI 49629 |
| John W Eaves |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
1 CITYPLACE ONE STE 300, ST LOUIS MO 63141 |
| James N Chapman |
director |
14 ALPINE ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| John A. Ziegler |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
ONE CITYPLACE DRIVE, SUITE 300, ST. LOUIS MO 63141 |
| Paul T. Demzik |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
ONE CITYPLACE DRIVE, SUITE 300, ST. LOUIS MO 63141 |
| John W Lorson |
officer: Controller |
CITYPLACE ONE SUITE 300, ARCH MINERAL CORP, CREVE COEUR MO 63141 |
| Rosemary L Klein |
officer: Sr. VP, General Counsel & Sec |
575 MARYVILLE CENTRE DRIVE, ST. LOUIS MO 63141 |
| Bartels Patrick J Jr |
director |
C/O WCI COMMUNITIES, INC., 24301 WALDEN CENTER DRIVE, BONITA SPRINGS FL 34134 |
| Peifang Zhang |
director |
21640 E. BRIARWOOD DR., AURORA CO 80016 |
| Robert B. Hamill |
director |
ONE CITYPLACE DRIVE, SUITE 300, ST. LOUIS MO 63141 |
| Holly K Koeppel |
director |
401 NORTH MAIN STREET, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27101 |
| Paul A Lang |
officer: President & COO |
ONE CITYPLACE DRIVE, SUITE 300, ST. LOUIS MO 63141 |
| John T. Drexler |
officer: Sr. V.P. and CFO |
ONE CITY PLACE DRIVE, SUITE 300, ST. LOUIS MO 63141 |
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