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ARPPQ.PFD (Atlas Resource Partners LP) Predictability Rank


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What is Atlas Resource Partners LP Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Atlas Resource Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Atlas Resource Partners LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Atlas Resource Partners LP Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
425 Houston Street, Suite 300, Fort Worth, TX, USA, 76102
Titan Energy LLC is an exploration and production company. It is focused on acquiring and developing oil and gas assets with operations in basins across the United States with a focus on the development of Eagle Ford Shell basin from South Texas. The firm also sponsors and manages drilling partnerships to finance its operations. It has Gas and Oil Production, Well Construction & Completion and Other partnership segments. The company derives the majority of its revenue from Gas and Oil production segment.
Executives
Christopher Kenneth Walker officer: Chief Operating Officer 425 HOUSTON STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Steven J Pully director 9800 RICHMOND AVE, SUITE 700, HOUSTON TX 77042
Foxfields Funding Llc 10 percent owner 201 ROUSE BOULEVARD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19112
Michael C. Forman 10 percent owner CIRA CENTRE, 2929 ARCH STREET, SUITE 675, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104-2867
Zachary Klehr 10 percent owner C/O FRANKLIIN SQUARE CAPITAL PARTNERS, CIRA CENTRE, 2929 ARCH STREET, SUITE 675, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Fs Investment Corp Ii 10 percent owner 201 ROUSE BOULEVARD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19112
Fsic Ii Advisor, Llc 10 percent owner 201 ROUSE BOULEVARD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19112
Gso Energy Market Opportunities Fund Lp 10 percent owner C/O GSO CAPITAL PARTNERS LP, 345 PARK AVE., NEW YORK NY 10154
Gso Energy Market Opportunities Associates Llc 10 percent owner C/O GSO CAPITAL PARTNERS LP, 345 PARK AVE., NEW YORK NY 10154
Gerald Stahlecker 10 percent owner CIRA CENTRE, 2929 ARCH STREET, SUITE 675, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104-2867
Fsic Iii Advisor, Llc 10 percent owner 201 ROUSE BOULEVARD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19112
Michael C Watchorn director NES RENTALS HOLDINGS INC, 8770 W BRYN MAWR, CHICAGO IL 60631
Gso / Blackstone Debt Funds Management Llc 10 percent owner C/O GSO CAPITAL PARTNERS LP, 345 PARK AVE., NEW YORK NY 10154
Fs Energy & Power Fund 10 percent owner 201 ROUSE BOULEVARD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19112
Fs Investment Advisor, Llc 10 percent owner 201 ROUSE BOULEVARD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19112

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