ATER (Aterian) Predictability Rank

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What is Aterian Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aterian Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Aterian Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Aterian Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances » Aterian Inc (NAS:ATER) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ATER:Mexico

Address

350 Springfield Avenue, Suite 200, Summit, NJ, USA, 07901

Website

https://www.aterian.io

Aterian Inc is a technology-enabled consumer products company. Its product categories include home and kitchen appliances, kitchenware, environmental appliances (dehumidifiers and air conditioners), beauty-related products and, consumer electronics. It has various owned and operates brands, including HomeLabs, Squatty Potty, Healing Solutions, PurSteam, and others. The company generates revenue through the online sales of various consumer products that are sold online.

Executives

Roi Zion Zahut	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O MOHAWK GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 37 EAST 18TH STREET, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Phillip Lepper	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	21908 N SPOTTED RD, DEER PARK WA 990006
Arturo Rodriguez	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ATARI, INC., 417 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Susan E. Lattmann	director	C/O BED BATH & BEYOND INC., 650 LIBERTY AVENUE, UNION NJ 07083
William Kurtz	director	NOVELLUS SYSTEMS, INC., 4000 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Sarah Liebel	director	1STDIBS.COM, INC., 51 ASTOR PLACE, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Bari A Harlam	director	C/O MOHAWK GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 37 EAST 18TH STREET, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Joseph A Risico	officer: General Counsel	C/O MOHAWK GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 37 EAST 18TH STREET, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Yaniv Zion Sarig	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	C/O MOHAWK GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 37 EAST 18TH STREET, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Mihal Chaouat-fix	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O MOHAWK GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 37 EAST 18TH STREET, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Rueden Anton Von	officer: COO	C/O ATERIAN, INC., 37 EAST 18TH STREET, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Cynthia W Williams	director	C/O WIZARDS OF THE COAST LLC, 1600 LIND AVENUE, SW, STE 400, RENTON WA 98055
Tomer Pascal	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O MOHAWK GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 37 EAST 18TH STREET, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
9830 Macarthur Llc	10 percent owner	30 N. GOULD ST, SUITE R, SHERIDAN WY 82801
Walter Amy Von	director	C/O MOHAWK GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 37 EAST 18TH STREET, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003