ATXS (Astria Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Astria Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Astria Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Astria Therapeutics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Astria Therapeutics Inc (NAS:ATXS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

22 Boston Wharf Road, 10th Floor, Boston, MA, USA, 02210

Website

https://www.astriatx.com

Astria Therapeutics Inc is a biopharmaceutical company engaged to bring life-changing therapies to patients and families affected by rare and niche allergic and immunological diseases. Its program, STAR-0215, is a monoclonal antibody inhibitor of plasma kallikrein in preclinical development for the treatment of hereditary angioedema. Their second product candidate is STAR-0310, a monoclonal antibody OX40 antagonist that is in preclinical development for the treatment of atopic dermatitis, or AD, an immune disorder associated with loss of skin barrier function and itching.

Executives

Christopher Morabito	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O FULCRUM THERAPEUTICS, INC., 26 LANDSDOWNE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd	director, 10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Andrea Matthews	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O ASTRIA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 75 STATE STREET, SUITE 1400, BOSTON MA 02109
Andrew Komjathy	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	CATABASIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., ONE KENDALL SQUARE, SUITE B14202, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Andrew John Nichols	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O CATABASIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., ONE KENDALL SQUARE, BLDG 1400E, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Perceptive Xontogeny Venture Fund, Lp	director, 10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Jonathan Violin	director	955 CHESTERBROOK BOULEVARD, SUITE 200, CHESTERBROOK PA 19087
Fred Callori	director	100 HIGH STREET, 28TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Xontogeny, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Perceptive Advisors Llc	director, 10 percent owner	51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Joseph Edelman	director, 10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Joanne T. Beck	director	C/O CATABASIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., ONE KENDALL SQ, BLD. 1400E, SUITE B14202, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Anthony Gregg Lapointe	director	PO BOX 83216, GAITHERSBURG MD 20883-3216
Hugh M Cole	director	C/O ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS, INC, 26 LANDSDOWNE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Benjamin Harshbarger	officer: Secretary and General Counsel	ONE MAIN STREET, SUITE 800, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142