BigCommerce Holdings (BigCommerce Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is BigCommerce Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BigCommerce Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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BigCommerce Holdings (BigCommerce Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » BigCommerce Holdings Inc (NAS:BIGC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BI1:Germany

Address

11305 Four Points Drive, Suite 100, Building II, Austin, TX, USA, 78726

Website

http://www.bigcommerce.com

BigCommerce Holdings Inc is engaged in offering Software-as-a-service (SaaS) e-commerce platform. The company's SaaS platform engages in the creation of online stores by delivering a combination of ease-of-use, enterprise functionality, and flexibility. It powers both the customers' branded ecommerce stores and their cross-channel connections to popular online marketplaces, social networks, and offline point-of-sale systems. The group operates in a single segment covering geographical areas of Americas-U.S.; Americas-other; EMEA; and APAC, of which a majority of revenue is generated from Americas-U.S.

Executives

Jeffrey Gordon Richards	director	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, BUILDING 4, SUITE 230, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Steven Chung	officer: President	11305 FOUR POINTS DR., BLDG. 2, SUITE 100, AUSTIN TX 78726
Lisa Pearson	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	11305 FOUR POINTS DRIVE, BUILDING II, SUITE 100, AUSTIN TX 78726
Daniel Lentz	officer: Chief Financial Officer	11305 FOUR POINT DRIVE, BUILDING II, SUITE 100, AUSTIN TX 78726
Hubert S Ban	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	11305 FOUR POINTS DRIVE, BUILDING II, SUITE 100, AUSTIN TX 78726
Charles D Cassidy	officer: General Counsel	11305 FOUR POINTS DRIVE, BUILDING II, SUITE 100, AUSTIN TX 78726
Brent Bellm	director, officer: See Remarks	11305 FOUR POINTS DRIVE, BUILDING II, THIRD FLOOR, AUSTIN TX 78726
Brian Singh Dhatt	officer: Chief Technology Officer	11305 FOUR POINTS DRIVE, BLDG. II, THIRD FLOOR, AUSTIN TX 78726
Jeff Mengoli	officer: See Remarks	11305 FOUR POINTS DRIVE, BUILDING II, THIRD FLOOR, AUSTIN TX 78726
Russell Scott Klein	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	11305 FOUR POINTS DRIVE, BUILDING II, THIRD FLOOR, AUSTIN TX 78726
Marc Ostryniec	officer: Chief Sales Officer	11305 FOUR POINTS DRIVE, BUILDING II, THIRD FLOOR, AUSTIN TX 78726
Robert Kaloustian	officer: Chief Services Officer	11305 FOUR POINTS DRIVE, BLDG II, THIRD FLOOR, AUSTIN TX 78726
Robert Alvarez	officer: Chief Financial Officer	11305 FOUR POINTS DRIVE, BUILDING II, SUITE 100, AUSTIN TX 78726
Sarah Gilligan	director	11305 FOUR POINTS DRIVE, BUILDING II, SUITE 100, AUSTIN TX 78726
Satish Malhotra	director	C/O CONTAINER STORE GROUP, INC., 550 FREEPORT PARKWAY, COPPELL TX 75019