Prospect Logistics and Industrial Freehold and Leasehold REIT (BKK:PROSPECT) Predictability Rank


BKK:PROSPECT Prospect Logistics and Industrial Freehold and Leasehold REIT BKK:PROSPECT
48 GF Score
Price ฿10.20
GF Value ฿8.45
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 11 Warning Signs
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What is Prospect Logistics and Industrial Freehold and Leasehold REIT Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Prospect Logistics and Industrial Freehold and Leasehold REIT Predictability Rank Related Terms

BKK:PROSPECT
48GF Score
Prospect Logistics and Industrial Freehold and Leasehold REIT BKK:PROSPECT
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Prospect Logistics and Industrial Freehold and Leasehold REIT Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Prospect Logistics and Industrial Freehold and Leasehold REIT (BKK:PROSPECT) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Prospect Logistics and Industrial Freehold and Leasehold REIT stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of ฿10.20 is trading 20.7% above its estimated GF Value™ of ฿8.45. GuruFocus considers Prospect Logistics and Industrial Freehold and Leasehold REIT to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for BKK:PROSPECT:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: ฿8.45 vs. price of ฿10.20 (20.7% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 48/100 with 11 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the BKK:PROSPECT stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Prospect Logistics and Industrial Freehold and Leasehold REIT Business Description

Industry Real EstateREITs
Address Surawong Road, No. 345, Building 345, Surawong Building, 5th Floor, Suriyawong Subdistrict, Bangrak District, Bangkok, THA, 10500
Prospect Logistics and Industrial Freehold and Leasehold REIT is a real estate investment trust operating as a closed-end trust, and mainly invests in factory and warehouse space for rent. The company's investment portfolio consists of the following projects: Sub-leasehold rights of parts of land and buildings in the Bangkok Free Trade Zone 1 (BFTZ 1); the ownership over the land and built-to-suit factory and office building in the X44 Bangna Km.18; Leasehold right of parts of the land and ownership over parts of the buildings in Bangkok Free Trade Zone 2 (BFTZ 2); and Ownership over parts of the land and buildings in Bangkok Free Trade Zone 3 (BFTZ 3). Prospect generates primary revenue from the leasing of warehouse and factory buildings.
48GF Score

Get the complete analysis for BKK:PROSPECT

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

฿10.20
Price
฿8.45
GF Value