What is Blue Ocean Acquisition Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Blue Ocean Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Blue Ocean Acquisition Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2 Wisconsin Circle, 7th Floor, Chevy Chase, MD, USA, 20815
Blue Ocean Acquisition Corp is a blank check company formed for the purpose of effecting a merger, share exchange, asset acquisition, share purchase, reorganization or similar business combination with one or more businesses.
Executives
| Matt Lasov |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
2 WISCONSIN CIRCLE, 7TH FLOOR, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815 |
| Richard Jr Leggett |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O RISKMETRICS GROUP, INC., 2099 GAITHER ROAD, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| Apollo Management Holdings Gp, Llc |
10 percent owner |
9 W. 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Apollo Capital Management Gp, Llc |
10 percent owner |
9 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Apollo Spac Fund I, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
27 HOSPITAL ROAD, GEORGE TOW E9 KY1-9008 |
| Paul J Bascobert |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
20 W. KINZIE ST, SUITE 1600, CHICAGO IL 60610 |
| Joel Motley |
director |
6803 SOUTH TUCSON WAY, CENTENNIAL CO 80112-3924 |
| Norman Pearlstine |
director |
C/O TIME INC., 225 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10281 |
| Ankur Manglik |
director, officer: Chief Strategy Officer & CFO |
2 WISCONSIN CIRCLE, 7TH FLOOR, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815 |
| Marcus Brauchli |
director, officer: Chairman |
2 WISCONSIN CIRCLE, 7TH FLOOR, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815 |
| Sean Glodek |
director, officer: Vice President |
2 WISCONSIN CIRCLE, 7TH FLOOR, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815 |
| Matt Goldberg |
director |
2 WISCONSIN CIRCLE, 7TH FLOOR, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815 |
| Priscilla Han |
director |
2 WISCONSIN CIRCLE, 7TH FLOOR, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815 |
| Dale Mathias |
director |
2 WISCONSIN CIRCLE, 7TH FLOOR, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815 |
| Blue Ocean Sponsor Llc |
10 percent owner |
2 WISCONSIN CIRCLE, 7TH FLOOR, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815 |
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