What is BlackRock Science and Technology Trust II Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
BlackRock Science and Technology Trust II Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
BlackRock Science and Technology Trust II Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
100 Bellevue Parkway, Wilmington, DE, USA, 19809
BlackRock Science and Technology Trust II is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. The trust's investment objectives are to provide total return and income through a combination of current income, current gains, and long-term capital appreciation. Its portfolio consists of Equity Securities, Options, Preferred Securities, Convertible Securities, Depositary Receipts, Non-U.S. Securities, Emerging Markets Investments, Restricted and Illiquid Investments, Private Company Investments, Corporate Bonds, and other investments. The trust seeks to Invest at least 80% of its total assets in equity securities issued by U.S. and non-U.S. science and technology companies in any market capitalization range from the development, advancement, and use of science and/or technology.
Executives
| Kyle Mcclements |
other: Portfolio Manager |
100 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, WILMINGTON DE 19809 |
| Tony Kim |
other: Portfolio Manager |
55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055 |
| Arthur Philip Steinmetz |
director |
50 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001 |
| Aaron David Wasserman |
officer: Chief Compliance Officer |
50 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001 |
| Caroline Elizabeth Tall |
other: Portfolio Manager |
60 STATE STREET, 19TH/20TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109 |
| Lorenzo Flores |
director |
2100 LOGIC DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95124 |
| James Phillip Holloman |
director |
P.O. BOX 625737, 6800 CINTAS BOULEVARD, CINCINNATI OH 45262 |
| Stayce D. Harris |
director |
1999 S. BASCOM AVE., SUITE 700, CAMPBELL CA 95008 |
| Jonathan Diorio |
officer: Vice President |
55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055 |
| Trent Walker |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O PIMCO, 650 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660 |
| Robert W Fairbairn |
director |
55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055 |
| Cynthia Egan |
director |
7117 BELLONA AVENUE, BALTIMORE MD 21212 |
| Steven Reid Menge |
other: Portfolio Manager |
55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055 |
| Richard Cavanagh |
director |
100 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, WILMINGTON DE 19809 |
| Blackrock Financial Management Inc/de |
other: Affil. of Investment Adviser |
100 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, WILMINGTON DE 19809 |
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