Bank7 (BSVN) Predictability Rank

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What is Bank7 Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bank7 Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Bank7 Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Bank7 Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Bank7 Corp (NAS:BSVN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

J0N:Germany

Address

1039 North West 63rd Street, Oklahoma City, OK, USA, 73116-7361

Website

https://www.bank7.com

Bank7 Corp is a full-service commercial bank focused on providing customers with exceptional service and meeting their banking needs through a variety of commercial and retail financial services. It offers deposit banking products, including commercial deposit services, commercial checking, money market, and other deposit accounts, and retail deposit services such as certificates of deposit, money market accounts, checking accounts, negotiable order of withdrawal accounts, savings accounts, and automated teller machine access. etc. It generates revenues from interest income from financial instruments and non-interest income and service charges on deposit accounts.

Executives

Douglas A Haines	officer: Reg. Pres. of West. OK & KS	1039 NW 63RD STREET, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73116
Henry Litchfield	officer: VP; General Counsel	1039 NW 63RD ST, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73116
Thomas L Travis	director, officer: President & CEO	1039 NW 63RD STREET, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73116
John T Phillips	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Sr. EVP, COO, Secretary	1039 NW 63RD STREET, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73116
Andrew J Levinson	officer: Regional President - Tulsa	5757 S LEWIS AVENUE, SUITE 575, TULSA OK 74105
Jason E Estes	officer: Executive Vice President; CCO	1039 NW 63RD STREET, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73116
Lisa K. Haines	10 percent owner, officer: EVP; Chief Marketing Officer	1039 NW 63RD STREET, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73116
Edward Patrick Gray	director	1711 HUNTINGTON AVE, NICHOLS HILLS OK 73116
Gary D Whitcomb	director	1039 NW 63RD STREET, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73116
J. Michael Sanner	director	3701 STONEHURST, JONES OK 73049
Charles W Brown	director	1039 NW 63RD STREET, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73116
William M Buergler	director	6100 N. WESTERN AVENUE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73118
Teresa L. Dick	director	500 WEST TEXAS, SUITE 1225, MIDLAND TX 79701
Kelly J Harris	officer: EVP; CFO	1039 NW 63RD STREET, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73116
William B. Haines	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman	1039 NW 63RD STREET, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73116