CASI (CASI Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1996. Start your Free Trial

What is CASI Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CASI Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

CASI Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of CASI Pharmaceuticals's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

CASI Pharmaceuticals Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » CASI Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:CASI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 81, Jianguo Road, Room 1701-1703, Tower 1, Huamao Office Building, Chaoyang District, Beijing, CHN, 100025

Website

https://www.casipharmaceuticals.com

CASI Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on commercializing therapeutics and pharmaceutical products. The products include injections for patients who are suffering from leukemias and lymphomas. The EVOMELA injection is used as a conditioning treatment before autologous stem cell transplant for patients with multiple myeloma. The company products include CID-103, CNCT19, EVOMELA, MARQIBO, ZEVALIN, ENMD-2076 and others. The majority of the revenue is generated from the product sales of EVOMELA.

Executives

James Huang	director	9620 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 300, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Wei-wu He	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO	ENTREMED, INC., 9640 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Weihao Xu	officer: Chief Financial Officer	9620 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 300, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Larry Zhang	officer: President	9620 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 300, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Shrotriya Rajesh C Md	director	157 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, IRVINE CA 92618
Salisbury Franklin Cary Jr	director	9620 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 300, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Yue Alexander Wu	director	C/O SORRENTO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 9380 JUDICIAL DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Wealth Strategy Holding Ltd	10 percent owner	LEVEL 12, INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE CENTRE, 1 AUSTIN ROAD WEST, HONG KONG K3 HK
Alexander A Zukiwski	officer: Chief Medical Officer	200 ROUTE 31 NORTH, SUITE 104, FLEMINGTON NJ 08822
George Chi	officer: Chief Financial Officer	9620 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 300, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Dapeng Li	10 percent owner	BUILDING 1037,XIHU GOLF,, ZHIGANG ROAD 200, HANGZHOU, ZHEJANG F4 310008
Idg-accel China Growth Fund Iii L.p.	10 percent owner	UNIT 5505, 55TH FLOOR, THE CENTER, 99 QUEEN'S ROAD K3 00000
Spectrum Pharmaceuticals Inc	10 percent owner	11500 S. EASTERN AVE., SUITE 240, HENDERSON NV 89052
Sparkle Byte Ltd	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 957, OFFSHORE INCORPORATIONS CENTRE ROAD TOWN, TORTOLA D8 00000
Ken Ren	director, officer: CEO and Director	3RD FL, BOROUGH A, BLOCK A, NO. 181 SOUTH TAIBAI ROAD, XI'AN, SHAANXI PROVINCE F4 710065