What is Calamos Dynamic Convertible andome Fund Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Calamos Dynamic Convertible andome Fund Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Calamos Dynamic Convertible andome Fund Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2020 Calamos Court, Naperville, IL, USA, 60563-2787
Calamos Dynamic Convertible and Income Fund operate as a diversified, closed-end management investment company. The fund's investment objective is to provide total return through a combination of current income and capital appreciation. It predominantly invests in a portfolio of convertible securities, investment grade and below investment grade bonds, loans, equity-linked notes, and floating rate securities.
Executives
| Erik D. Ojala |
officer: VP, Sec'y & Chief Legal Off. |
2020 CALAMOS CT., NAPERVILLE IL 60563 |
| Mark Mickey |
officer: Chief Compliance Officer |
2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563 |
| Susan L Schoenberger |
officer: VP and Assistant Secretary |
2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563 |
| Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co |
10 percent owner |
720 EAST WISCONSIN AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53202 |
| Metlife Investment Management, Llc |
10 percent owner |
ONE METLIFE WAY, WHIPPANY NJ 07981 |
| Thrivent Financial For Lutherans |
10 percent owner |
901 MARQUETTE AVENUE, SUITE 2500, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402-3211 |
| Daniel Dufresne |
officer: Vice President |
2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563 |
| Stephen Atkins |
officer: Treasurer |
2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563 |
| David D Tripple |
director |
2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563 |
| Christopher M Toub |
director |
2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563 |
| Karen Stuckey |
director |
2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563 |
| Dave Vanisko |
officer: Treasurer |
2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563 |
| Calamos John P Sr |
director, officer: Chairman & President |
2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563 |
| Calamos Family Partners, Inc. |
other: Ultimate Parent of Inv Adviser |
2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563 |
| Lloyd Wennlund |
director |
2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563 |
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