GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Campus Crest Communities Inc (NYSE:CCGPRA.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

CCGPRA.PFD (Campus Crest Communities) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is Campus Crest Communities Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Campus Crest Communities Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Campus Crest Communities Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Campus Crest Communities's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Campus Crest Communities Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Campus Crest Communities Inc was incorporated in the State of Maryland on 1 March 2010. On October 19, 2010, it completed its initial public offering of common stock. The Company is a self-managed, self-administered real estate investment trust ("REIT") focused on owning and managing a high-quality student housing portfolio located close to college campuses. As of December 31, 2014, the Company owned interests in 47 operating student housing The Grove properties containing approximately 9,700 apartment units and 26,300 beds. Thirty-six of Company's operating The Grove properties are wholly-owned and eleven of The Grove properties are owned through joint ventures with HSRE. As of December 31, 2014, it also owned interests in 36 operating student housing Copper Beech branded properties containing approximately 6,500 apartment units and 17,300 beds. The majority of Company's operating properties other than those in the CB Portfolio, evo and Toledo operate under The Grove brand. The Company is subject to competition for student-tenants from on-campus housing owned by universities and colleges and also competes with other regional and national owner-operators of off-campus student housing in a number of markets as well as with smaller local owner-operators.
Executives
Curtis B Mcwilliams director 450 SOUTH ORANGE AVENUE, ORLANDO FL 32801
Raymond C Mikulich director 2100 REXFORD ROAD, SUITE 414, CHARLOTTE NC 28211
Randall H Brown director 2100 REXFORD ROAD, SUITE 414, CHARLOTTE NC 28211
David James Coles officer: Interim CEO 2100 REXFORD ROAD, SUITE 414, CHARLOTTE NC 28211
John Makuch officer: Interim CFO 2100 REXFORD ROAD, SUITE 414, CHARLOTTE NC 28211
Angel Herrera officer: Executive Vice President 6613 RIVERHILL DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024
Aaron Scott Halfacre officer: Executive Vice President 2100 REXFORD ROAD, SUITE 300, CHARLOTTE NC 28211
Denis Mcglynn director POST OFFICE BOX 843, DOVER DE 19903
William G Popeo director 709 PHEASANT RUN, KENNETT SQUARE PA 19348
Michael S Hartnett officer: Vice President 2100 REXFORD ROAD, SUITE 414, CHARLOTTE NC 28211
James W Mccaughan director 2100 REXFORD ROAD, SUITE 414, CHARLOTTE NC 28211
Daniel L Simmons director 1440 HIGHWAY A1A, VERO BEACH FL 32963
Richard S Kahlbaugh director 25330 MARSH LANDING PARKWAY, PONTE VEDRA FL 32082
Lauro A Gonzalez-moreno director 2128 N. SHADOW CREEK DR., AGOURA CA 91301
N Anthony Coles director MORRIS CORP. CENTER I; BLDG. B; 4TH FLR., 300 INTERPACE PARKWAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054

Campus Crest Communities Headlines

From GuruFocus

Meridian Funds Comments on Campus Crest Communities Inc

By Vera Yuan Vera Yuan 06-20-2014

The Best Dividends on March 26, 2012

By Dividend Dividend 03-23-2012