CCRD (CoreCard) Predictability Rank

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What is CoreCard Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CoreCard Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CoreCard Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » CoreCard Corp (NYSE:CCRD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

One Meca Way, Norcross, GA, USA, 30093

Website

https://www.corecard.com

CoreCard Corp is engaged in the business of providing technology solutions and processing services to the financial technology and services market. It designs, develops and markets a comprehensive suite of software solutions to program managers, accounts receivable businesses, financial institutions, retailers and processors to manage their credit and debit cards, prepaid cards, private label cards, fleet cards, buy now pay later programs, loyalty programs and accounts receivable and loan transactions. The CoreCard software platform and modules include CoreENGINE, CoreISSUE, CoreFRAUD, CoreCOLLECT, CoreAPP, CoreMONEY and CoreACQUIRE. Its customers are located in the U.S, European Union and the Middle East of which key revenue is derived from the U.S.

Executives

J Leland Strange	director, 10 percent owner, Pres & CEO	4355 SHACKLEFORD RD, NORCROSS GA 30093
Kathryn Petralia	director	TRICOLOR HOLDINGS, INC., 6021 CONNECTION DRIVE, 4TH FLOOR, IRVING TX 75039
Elizabeth W Camp	director	1111 BAY AVENUE, SUITE 501, COLUMBUS GA 31901
Philip H Moise	director	3130 GATEWAY DRIVE, NORCROSS GA 30071
Chandler A Russell Iii	director	C/O KILPATRICK STOCKTON LLP, 110 PEACHTREE STREET SUITE 2800, ATLANTA GA 30309
Matthew A White	officer: CFO and Corporate Secretary	4355 SHACKLEFORD RD, NORCROSS GA 30093
Karen J Reynolds	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1816 MAGNOLIA BLUFF WAY, DULUTH GA 30097
Cherie M Fuzzell	director	2795 EAST COTTONWOOD PARKWAY, SUITE 660, SLC UT 84121
Bonnie L Herron	officer: Chief Financial Officer
J William Goodhew	officer: Vice President
John B Peatman	director
Francis A Marks	officer: Vice President
James V Napier	director	3355 LENOX ROAD, SUITE 750, ATLANTA 2Q 30326
Parker H Petit	director	1850 PARKWAY PL, MARIETTA GA 30067
Donald A Mcmahon	director