CDORP.PFD (Condor Hospitality Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Condor Hospitality Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Condor Hospitality Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Condor Hospitality Trust Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Condor Hospitality Trust Inc (NAS:CDORP.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1800 West Pasewalk Avenue, Suite 200, Norfolk, NE, USA, 68701

Website

http://www.condorhospitality.com

Condor Hospitality Trust Inc is a US-based self-administered real estate investment trust. It is engaged in the investment and ownership of select service, limited service, extended stay and compact full-service hotels. The primary business of the company is owning equity interests in hotel properties. It conducts its business through a traditional umbrella partnership REIT in which the hotel properties are owned by its operating partnership, Condor Hospitality Limited Partnership, and its subsidiaries.

Executives

Saul Zang	director	CONDOR HOSPITALITY TRUST, INC., 1800 WEST PASEWALK AVENUE, STE. 120, NORFOLK NE 68701
Jill Burger	officer: CFO & CAO	1800 WEST PASEWALK AVENUE, SUITE 120, NORFOLK NE 68701
Drew Iadanza	director	4275 EXECUTIVE SQUARE, SUITE 500, LAJOLLA CA 92037
Noah Y. Davis	director	CONDOR HOSPITALITY TRUST, INC., 4800 MONTGOMERY LANE, SUITE 220, BETHESDA MD 20814
Matias Gaivironsky	director	1800 WEST PASEWALK AVENUE, SUITE 120, NORFOLK NE 68701
Real Estate Investment Group Vii L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O JIWIN S.A., CAMBARA 1620 OF 202, MONTEVIDEO X3 0000000000
Thomas Calahan	director	1800 WEST PASEWALK AVENUE, SUITE 120, NORFOLK NE 68701
Benjamin Wall	director	4800 MONTGOMERY LANE, SUITE 220, BETHESDA MD 20814
Mark David Linehan	director	5330 DEBBIE ROAD, SUITE 100, SANTA BARBARA CA 93111
Brendan Macdonald	director	4275 EXECUTIVE SQUARE, SUITE 500, LAJOLLA CA 92037
Stepstone Rep Iii (gp), Llc	10 percent owner	4275 EXECUTIVE SQUARE, SUITE 500, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Stepstone Group Real Estate Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	4275 EXECUTIVE SQUARE, SUITE 500, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Stepstone Group Real Estate Lp	10 percent owner	4275 EXECUTIVE SQUARE, SUITE 500, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Srep Iii Flight - Investco, L.p.	10 percent owner	4275 EXECUTIVE SQUARE, SUITE 500, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Jeff Giller	director	1800 WEST PASEWALK AVE., STE. 200, NORFOLK NE 68701