CERX (Colombia Energy Resources) Predictability Rank

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What is Colombia Energy Resources Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Colombia Energy Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Colombia Energy Resources Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Colombia Energy Resources Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Other Energy Sources » Colombia Energy Resources Inc (OTCPK:CERX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

One Embarcadero Center, Suite 500, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94111

Website

Colombia Energy Resources Inc. is engaged in the business of acquiring and developing metallurgical coal mines in Colombia, South America. The Company owns and controls mining concessions in the provinces of Boyaca and Santander regions.

Executives

Watsa V Prem Et Al	10 percent owner	95 WELLINGTON STREET WEST, SUITE 800, TORONTO A6 M5J 2N7
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd/ Can	10 percent owner	FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LTD, 95 WELLINGTON ST WEST STE 800, TORONTO A6 M5J 2N7
Sixty Two Investment Co Ltd	10 percent owner	1600 CATHEDRAL PLACE, 925 W GEORGIA ST, VANCOUVER BC CANADA A1 V6C3L3
Second 1109 Holdco Ltd.	10 percent owner	95 WELLINGTON ST W STE 800, TORONTO A6 M5J 2N7
810679 Ontario Ltd	10 percent owner	95 WELLINGTON STREET WEST SUITE 800, TORONTO ONTARIO CANADA A6 00000
Odyssey America Reinsurance Corp	10 percent owner	300 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, STAMFORD CT 06902
Steelhead Partners Llc	other: See footnotes (1) (2) (3)	800 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 3700, SEATTLE WA 98104
James Michael Johnston	other: See footnotes (1) (2) (3)	333 108TH AVENUE NE, SUITE 2010, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Brian Katz Klein	other: See footnotes (1) (2) (3)	333 108TH AVENUE NE, SUITE 2010, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Steelhead Navigator Master, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, UGLAND HOUSE, PO BOX 309, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Peter B Lilly	other: Former Director	4501 GULF SHORE BLVD N, ARIA 1203, NAPLES FL 34103
Ronald G Stovash	other: Former Officer	16496 FELICITA COURT, NAPLES FL 34110-3264

Colombia Energy Resources Headlines

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