CNL Healthcare Properties (CNL Healthcare Properties) Predictability Rank

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What is CNL Healthcare Properties Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CNL Healthcare Properties Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CNL Healthcare Properties (CNL Healthcare Properties) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » CNL Healthcare Properties Inc (OTCPK:CHTH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

GMRE CHCT UHT DHC AHTR HLTC CVMCA NHHS STRW LTC WELL VTR PEAK OHI HR SBRA MPW DOC XBRU:AED NHI

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

450 South Orange Avenue, CNL Center at City Commons, Orlando, FL, USA, 32801

Website

https://www.cnlhealthcareproperties.com

CNL Healthcare Properties Inc operates as a real estate investment trust. The company's real estate ownership consists of owning, managing, leasing, acquiring, developing, investing in, and as conditions warrant, disposing of real estate assets in the healthcare, office, retail, lifestyle, restaurant, hotel, and multifamily development sectors. Additionally, it focuses on acquiring properties in the senior housing, medical office, acute care, and post-acute care classes, including stabilized, value-add, and development properties, income-producing real estate, and real estate-related securities and loans.

Executives

John R. Mcrae	officer: Senior Vice President	823 BRIGHTWATER CIRCLE, MAITLAND FL 32751
Tracey B. Bracco	officer: See Remarks	450 S. ORANGE AVENUE, ORLANDO FL 32801
John F. Starr	officer: See Remarks	450 SOUTH ORANGE AVENUE, ORLANDO FL 32801
L Burke Rainey	officer: See Explanation of Responses	450 S. ORANGE AVENUE, ORLANDO FL 32801
Seneff James M Jr	director	CNL FINANCIAL GROUP, 450 SOUTH ORANGE AVENUE, ORLANDO FL 32801
Kevin R Maddron	officer: See Remarks	P.O. BOX 4920, ORLANDO FL 32802
J Chandler Martin	director	2226 THETFORD COURT, CHARLOTTE NC 28211
Joseph T Johnson	officer: SVP, CFO and Treasurer	200 S. ORANGE AVENUE, SUITE 2700, ORLANDO FL 32801
J Douglas Holladay	director	7902 WESTPARK DR, C/O SUNRISE ASSISTED LIVING, MCLEAN VA 22102
Bruce Douglas	director	450 SOUTH ORANGE AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, ORLANDO FL 32801
Dennis N Folken	director	450 SOUTH ORANGE AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, ORLANDO FL 32801
Holly Greer	officer: SVP, General Counsel and Secy	450 SOUTH ORANGE AVENUE, ORLANDO FL 32801
Thomas Kent Sittema	director	P.O. BOX 4920, ORLANDO FL 32802
Stephen H Mauldin	officer: President and CEO	450 SOUTH ORANGE AVENUE, ORLANDO FL 32801
Ixchell Duarte	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	450 S ORANGE AVE, ORLANDO FL 32801

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